Ryan’s Sick Pix
A quick recap from Saturdays College football games, we went 9-6 on picks, with most of our losses coming in the Notre Dame game (0-3). The Florida versus Alabama game was basically free money though, as not only did Florida +17.5 hit, but I also correctly predicted both Pitts and Toney to score as well as DeVonta Smith (2 touchdowns) and Najee Harris (5 touchdowns) to both score twice.
Starting with the Buccaneers matchup in Atlanta, the first play I like is Tampa Bay -6.5. While the Bucs can be a very high scoring team and the Falcon’s defense gives up more than their fair share of points, I like the under 49.5. In seven games played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the total points have gone under in four of them. The average points per game is 50, but the under should be safe. An alternate line of like over 46.5 could be the perfect safe play. Some player props I like in this game starting with total receptions, I like the over Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Rob Gronkowski at 5.5, 4.5, and 3.5 respectively. I like under 3.5 receptions for Hayden Hurst, who after a great start has really cooled off catching less then 4 catches in 3 of his last 4 games. For passing yards, I like over 272.5 for Matt Ryan, while riding the under 300.5 for Tom Brady. With the questions at running back with Gurley being extremely ineffective (2.7ypc last five games), I expect Matt Ryan to be throwing the ball a lot. Brady will get his yards but he only completed 15 passes for 196 yards last week against a middle of the pack Vikings defense. I like the overs on receiving yards for Ridley at 80.5 and Gage whose lines is at a modest 54.5 yards. I also like the under 56.5 for Antonio Brown. Even though he led the team in receptions last week, they were all dump offs that did not result in much yards. My favorite player might be over 27.5 rushing for Ito Smith, as the Falcons could give Ito a solid chunk of Gurley’s touches since he largely out carried him in the second half last week’s matchup.
Moving on to the Vikings who host the bears, I like Kirk Cousins over 257.5 passing yards as well as over 1.5 touchdown passes. Cousins has had some success in his career against Chicago and I expect him to hit 257.5 without much of a sweat. The over under is set at 47 currently, and I am going to ride the over, as well as Vikings moneyline. This game should be another close game, but just like in week ten, the Vikings should win. I like the over for Trubisky passing yards which is currently at 247.5 after throwing for 267 the past two weeks. Six of seven games played in Minnesota this season have gone over, points should be easier to come by than at Soldier Field. Dalvin Cook first touchdown scorer at +450 could potentially be a nice cash out, as well as Allen Robinson anytime scorer (+115). Ever since Trubisky has taken back over, Allen Robinson has been getting fed a ton of targets (33 targets in three games), catching 23 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. Robinson should be targeted early and often as the Bears try to perform better than their last matchup, in which Robinson caught 6 balls for 43 yards. Anthony Miller over 2.5 catches could be a nice play, as Robinson will not catch every ball. A riskier play that I like is Darnell Mooney under 3.5 catches, as he’s only caught four balls in one of the Bears last 4 games.
The Chiefs -3 should be the play of the day. With Michael Thomas out, it will be hard for the Saints to hang with their offense. While the Saints defense has been good, the runs Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are on right now have almost never before been seen. I am riding the over on all of Kelce’s props at 87 yards and 6.5 catches. Emmanuel Sanders over 4.5 catches should be a nice play, as they will need him to have a big game. Jared Cook over 2.5 catches is another easy money play as he has caught three passes two weeks in a row and he will need to step up and make some plays for his team if they hope to win.
Below are some more player props I like:
Derrick Henry- Over 113.5 rushing yards
AJ Brown- Over 71.5 receiving yards
Marvin Jones- Over 57.5 receiving yards (if Stafford plays)
Deshaun Watson- Over 265.5 passing yards (love this play)
Jonathan Taylor- Over 76.5 rushing yards
T.Y. Hilton- Over 59.5 receiving yards
Lamar Jackson- Under 196.5 passing yards
James Robinson- Over 65.5 rushing yards
J.K. Dobbins- Over 68.5 rushing yards
Nick Mullens- Over 237.5 passing yards
Brandon Aiyuk- Over 74.5 receiving yards
Michael Gallup- Under 51.5 receiving yards
Tua Tagovailoa– Under 220.5 passing yards
Terry Mclaurin- Under 5.5 catches
Tyler Lockett- Over 58.5 receiving yards
DK Metcalf- Over 73.5 receiving yards.
Logan Thomas- Over 3.5 catches (hammer this play)
Cam Akers- Over 73.5 rushing yards
Kyler Murray- Under 258.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts- Over 59.5 rushing yards
Miles Sanders- Over 63.5 rushing yards
DeAndre Hopkins- Over 85.5 (teams have loved picking on Slay)
Dallas Goedert- Over 38.5 receiving yards/3.5 catches
Jalen Reager- Over 34.5 receiving yards
D’Andre Swift- Over 22.5 receiving yards