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Nov 18, 2018; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (18) catches a pass in front of Minnesota Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson (50) in the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 DFS Value Picks – Main Slate

Looking for some daily fantasy football knowledge outside Chill, Marry, Kill for Week 15? Keep in mind many players featured in that article can apply to daily fantasy as well so check it out!

Here are your best DraftKings values for the Week 15 games. If you got your ass knocked out of your seasonal league look no further than DraftKings. The best strategy as always with the tight salaries and smaller slates is to get your studs at running back (Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook) and go cheaper at the other positions. So wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends will be heavily featured here.


Tom Brady ($5,900) – NE

Dec 9, 2018; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) attempts a pass under pressure from Miami Dolphins defensive end Robert Quinn (94) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

I love me some Tom Brady this week. Pittsburgh on the road? No problem. Brady owns the Steelers. Via FFDynasy260 on Twitter: Tom Brady owns the Pittsburgh Steelers.

  • 11-2 all time record
  • 8-2 regular season
  • 3-0 post season
  • @ Pittsburgh 6-2
  • 30 TD 4 INTs

The Steelers have allowed 2 passing touchdowns in three straight games and six of their last eight games. The Steelers allow the most passing touchdowns at home this season at 2.5 per game. Now don’t get me wrong, Brady will be under pressure in this game. However, no QB has thrown for more touchdowns this season (9) than Brady this season under pressure via Pro Football Focus. The Steelers at home this season have allowed 36 passing attempts per game and 255.8 passing yards per game. Over the past three seasons in road games where Brady has had 36 passing attempts or more, he averages 25.7 fantasy points per game.  Julian Edelman has a plus matchup in the slot as the Steelers’ are trying a new cornerback in Cameron Sutton. Sutton has allowed from the slot this season 11 receptions on 12 targets for 114 yards and one touchdown for a 134.0 quarterback rating. 

Dak Prescott ($5,500) – DAL

Nov 18, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes the football against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

One of the better cash plays this week, Prescott won’t do as nearly as well as he did last week when he threw for a career-high 455 yards. The interesting thing about Prescott is that every single game this season he has gone from a good game to bad game or just a worse performance. Looking after Amari Cooper joined the team Prescott numbers have gone as follows: 15.82, 21.70, 14.82, 27.36, 14.16, 26.40. So that pattern would assume he would more likely to have a down game, but still, he should do well enough to be cash viable with 16-18 fantasy points. The Colts allow the third most pass attempts per game at home, around 240 passing yards, and 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Colts also have the tenth worst pressure rate (10.6%) and are allowing the ninth-highest yards per attempt at home this season (7.4). They rank 5th worse in DVOA against the deep ball via FootballOutsiders. Note that Zack Martin the Pro Bowl guard is missing this game for the Cowboys which could negatively affect the Cowboys ability to run the football. The Colts have not allowed a rusher over 80 yards since Week 7. 

Marcus Mariota ($5,100) – TEN

Mariota over the past six games has scored 21 fantasy points or more in four of them. He is inconsistent play makes him a better GPP play than cash play, but we have seen what he can reach in a pinch. The Giants have allowed the fifth most passing yards to the QB position over the past four weeks and teams run on average 67.8 plays against New York at home. That is the third highest in the league. The Titans on the average run just under 60 plays per game so those additional plays could help Mariota hit 3X. 

Jeff Driskel ($5,100) – CIN

Dec 9, 2018; Carson, CA, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel (6) avoids Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa (99) during the second quarter at StubHub Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

We have not seen the Bengals signal-caller in a better spot than right here at $5,100. The Oakland Raiders defense is atrocious allowing third-most fantasy points per game to the QB position over the past four weeks. Driskel and the Bengals showed life versus the Chargers and I think they will put up points at home in this game. The Raiders have allowed at least 14 fantasy points to every single QB they faced this season almost guaranteeing that Driskel hits 3X. Add in his rushing upside ability and Driskel becomes a play in cash and GPPs. 

Honorable Mentions – Nick Mullens ($4,800) – SF and Josh Johnson ($4,300) – WAS

We have seen both these QBs put up fantasy points and at their prices they unlock so much into a roster build. You need to consider them. Mullens threw for 400 yards plus the last time he played Seattle and Johnson has the Konami Code running upside. Which one will be in the Millionaire? 

Running Backs

Nyheim Hines ($3,800) – IND

There’s a strong chance that T.Y. Hilton does not play in this game. In that case, you could see an uptick in touches and targets for a one Nyheim Hines. The Dallas defense is elite versus RBs, but have allowed the 11th most receptions to the RB position, over the last four weeks. Hines has run the 5th most routes of all RBs over the past two weeks and has 13 targets over that timespan. 

Chris Thompson ($4,400) – WAS

Sep 9, 2018; Glendale, AZ, USA; Washington Redskins running back Chris Thompson (25) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Redskins have no offensive line. They are basically all on injured reserve creating the narrative that Johnson may be forced to dump off the ball to Thompson. The Jaguars have allowed the 10th most receptions to the RB position, over the last four weeks along with the 5th most red zone touches and 3rd most red zone targets. 

Marcus Murphy ($3,400) – BUF

With Chris Ivory and LeSean McCoy possibly out or limited with injury Marcus Murphy could be a guy you could look to in a quick pinch. Possible stack with Josh Allen perhaps? Murphy ran the 7th most routes of RBs last week and faces a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions, second-most targets, tenth-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position. 

Dec 9, 2018; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Marcus Murphy (45) runs with the ball against the New York Jets during the third quarter at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receivers

Michael Gallup ($3,600) – DAL

Gallup leads the Cowboys in air yards since Amari Cooper joined the team and like I made reference in Dak Prescott’s section the Colts rank 5th worse in DVOA against the deep ball via FootballOutsiders. He’s had 27 targets over the past four weeks.  @FantasyADHD sees an explosion coming in the future for Gallup at $3,600. 

Dede Westbrook ($4,500) – JAC

Dec 6, 2018; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Dede Westbrook (12) catches a pass as he is defended by Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Cheap targets for Westbrook. Cody Kessler loves to target this guy, and you just follow suit and target him in DFS cash games as well. The Washington Redskins allowed two touchdowns to slot receivers last week, and have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the WR over the last four weeks. No team has allowed more receiving touchdowns to WRs than the Skins over the past four weeks. 

Taylor Gabriel ($4,200) – CHI

Green Bay gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to the WR position. Over the past four weeks, Gabriel has had 9, 8, 7, and 7 targets. Now he has not done much but the QB play has been inconsistent. With it being Mitchell Trubisky’s second game back from injury, I think he improves with Gabriel being the main beneficiary. Over the past four weeks, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most receptions, fourth-most targets, and third-most touchdowns to wide receivers. Gabriel leads his team in YAC and air yards so he has the high upside to compliment his floor. 

Brandon Powell ($3,000) – DET

We saw the opportunity with Daesean Hamilton one week ago when Emmanuel Sanders went out here. Powell looks to take the slot receiver role for Bruce Ellington who has been ruled out in this matchup. The Lions are depleted everywhere so there is a chance that the team leader in receptions during the Lions’ preseason turns up against the Bills. And for the upside, a $3,000 play enters with Andy Jones. Jones played in over 60% of the snaps last week and ran 11 routes. The Bills have allowed four touchdowns to WRs over the last four weeks. And just check out that Andy Jones burst score…

Honorable Mentions – Tyler Boyd – CIN ($5,700), David Moore – SEA ($4,300), Robert Foster – BUF ($4,300), Isaiah McKenzie ($3,900), Taywan Taylor – TEN ($3,800), Dante Pettis – SF ($4,400)

Tight Ends

C.J. Uzomah ($3,600) – CIN

In a sneaky shootout, the Raiders are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the TE position. They are the worst-ranked team in DVOA against the TE this season. No TE has run more routes over the past month and Uzomah ranks sixth in total targets during that time period. 

 Mark Andrews ($2,800) – BAL

Tampa Bay gives up the 7th most fantasy points to the TE position. He’s cheap and is coming off a dud of an outing. He has big-play upside and nobody will be on him in GPPs. 

Anthony Firkser ($2,900) – TEN

Aug 30, 2018; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Anthony Firkser (86) catches a pass against Minnesota Vikings safety Anthony Harris (41) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

With no more Jonnu Smith, Firkser automatically comes into play. The Giants have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to the TE position over the past four weeks. That include the seventh-most receptions, and fifth- most red zone targets. He has caught all of his targets this season and was an absolute stud in the preseason. Firkser? I hardly know her 😉