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Dec 2, 2018; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) signals for a first down during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14 DFS Value Picks – Main Slate

Looking for some daily fantasy football knowledge outside Chill, Marry, Kill for Week 14? Keep in mind many players featured in that article can apply to daily fantasy as well so check it out!

Here are your best DraftKings values for the Week 14 games. If you got your ass knocked out of your seasonal league look no further than DraftKings. The best strategy as always with the tight salaries is to get your studs at running back (Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Nick Chubb) and go cheaper at the other positions. So wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends will be heavily featured here.

Quarterbacks 

Aaron Rodgers ($6,000) – GB

It’s Aaron Rodgers f*ck you Mike McCarthy week. We are going to see Rodgers show the world versus the Atlanta Falcons that he was never the problem. Atlanta gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position on the season. In six career games versus the Falcons, Rodgers has thrown for 300 yards in five of them, and four touchdowns in the sixth game. The Falcons have also allowed on average on the road 21.03 fantasy points to the QB over their last four road games. In the games where the total points scored has gone over 45 points, Rodgers has scored 23 plus fantasy points.  

Dec 2, 2018; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Deshaun Watson ($5,900) – HOU

One of my favorite cash quarterbacks this week Watson faces the Colts defense at home that on paper has not allowed a ton of fantasy points to the QB position. However, this can be more attributed to who they have faced. In Weeks 6-13 they have faced Sam Darnold, Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert/Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill, and Cody Kessler. Not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Still, they allowed 20 plus point fantasy days to Bortles and Carr both with Carr’s being a road game for Indy. The Colts allowed over 30 fantasy points the first time they played Watson. With Watson averaging 26.3 passing attempts over his last three games with the Colts allowing 35 passing attempts per game, 30 passing attempts seems like a realistic projection. In his career at home with 30 or more passing attempts Watson averages 30 fantasy points per game. Also, Watson is averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game at home this season. 

Andrew Luck ($5,900) – IND

With me liking Watson, of course, I need to throw some love at the QB on the other side, Andrew Luck. Similar to the Colts, the Texans defense on paper looks good. Houston gives up the 9th fewest fantasy points to the QB position. However, they have allowed over 300 yards passing in back to back games and the last time Luck faced them he threw for over 450 yards. Coming off his worst game of the season, Luck should get back on track this week. This game could be a low-key shootout. 

Dec 2, 2018; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) drops to throw a pass during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Lamar Jackson ($5,700) – BAL

Whaddup Lamar? Again we get a matchup versus the porous Chiefs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the QB position over the past four weeks. Now the reason Jackson is a great play is that he is essentially game script proof. If the Ravens fall behind then he will have to run and throw to keep up. If the Ravens garner a lead and play keep away Jackson will still be heavily involved as a runner. The Chiefs defense does play much better at home so there is a concern that KC just totally shuts down Jackson. They have only allowed 17.6 points per game at home. Still, it’s Jacksons’ floor of 16 fantasy points and his rushing upside that makes him a viable option. I think I prefer him in GPPs though versus cash games. Only two QBs have scored 20 plus fantasy points versus the Chiefs in KC and one of those guys was Blake Bortles when he had 61 passing attempts. 

Derek Carr ($5,000) – OAK

There’s defintely a narrative where the Raiders keep up in this game versus the Steelers. I mean we saw it last week with the Raiders keeping pace with the Chiefs. The Steelers defense allows 23.5 points per game and 328 yards of offense per game along with 228 passing yards per game which is 8th best in the NFL. In his career, Derek Carr in games where he has thrown for over 228 yards he has averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game. Considering the Raiders also scored 17 points on the road versus a very good Baltimore defense, I would project they could score 21 points versus the Steelers. Carr’s three best fantasy outings came this season when he was at home and the Raiders scored more than 24 points. Again, he is strictly a GPP play. 

Ryan Tannehill ($4,800) – MIA

The last time Tannehill played the Patriots at home, he threw for 350 yards and two scores. The Patriots defense plays much worse on the road, allowing the fourth-most passing yards in their road games this season. The Patriots traditionally struggle for whatever reason every season in Miami, so Tannehill could produce a solid fantasy output. Tannehill has thrown for eight touchdowns in total over his last three home games despite only 53 total passing attempts. 9.3% touchdown rate at home. He’s undefeated at home this season. Also, he has thrown for 300 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 against the Patriots.

Running Backs

Stevan Ridley ($3,300) – PIT

Chalk, chalk, and more chalk. With the news of James Conner being out Samuels becomes an immediate value on DraftKings. At $3,700 Samuels seems absolutely destined to hit 3x on his price based on the matchup against the Raiders. Oakland gives up the 6th most fantasy points to the RB position. OR DOES HE? PIVOT TO MY BOY STEVAN RIDLEY.

Here’s why. Consider that the Raiders have allowed the fewest targets/gm (4.75) and receptions/gm (3.33) to the RB position. Majority of points they allow are through rushing yards. They allow over 25 rushing attempts/game. Pittsburgh rushes 22 times per game on average on the road. James Conner saw double-digit carries in all but one of the road games played this season It’s highly likely that Ridley sees double-digit carries in this matchup even if the carries are 50-50 split with Samuels. 75% of the running backs that have played the Raiders who have seen double-digit carries have scored double-digit fantasy points. Also, consider that in the blowouts that the Steelers have played Ridley. He saw five carries versus Atlanta and eight carries versus Carolina. Remember Samuels caught more passes in college than he had in total carries. No way he is getting the goalline work. 

Justin Jackson ($3,800) – LAC

The Bengals are a trash-heap. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed the most fantasy points to the RB position, and I feel strongly about Jackson getting more carries in this matchup. Don’t get me wrong, I think Austin Ekler is also a nice player but he’s at $6,200. If the RB backfield is going to be a committee I want to play the cheapest guy. 

LeGarrette Blount ($3,900) – DET

HE IS COMING. The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season, the most on the year. They have allowed the most rushing attempts, third-most rushing yards, and the most red-zone touches. Blount has run the ball pretty well in the absence of Kerryon Johnson rushing for 149 rushing yards on 35 rushing attempts for 4.2 yards per carry. Blount has averaged 17 plus carries in the past two weeks. The Cardinals this season have allowed every running back not named Matt Breida to double-digit fantasy points that have seen at least 14 carries. Who’s ready for some smoked bird?

Wide Receivers

Marquez Valdez-Scanting ($4,400) – GB

We like Aaron Rodgers this week, so that means we should like his receivers correct? MVS last week was second on the team in air yards (81), third on the team in targets (7), third on the team in routes run (45), and second on snap percentage played (84.21%). According to the FootballOutsiders the Falcons also rank the worst against  “Other WRs” in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). If you are looking for a receiver to stack with upside MVS could be your guy to win a GPP. With Randall Cobb returning Valdez-Scantling played strictly on the outside. He ranks second on the team in deep targets (12). The best games for MVS were in Weeks 5-8 when he scored double-digit fantasy points in each matchup. Two of those games saw Aaron Rodgers finish as a top-three quarterback. If you are a believer in Rodgers this week you need to believe in MVS.

Larry Fitzgerald ($4,900) -ARI

He’s at home! And there is no more Christian Kirkthanso Fitzgerald is going to have to see targets. Fitzgerald over the past two seasons has averaged 17 plus fantasy points in PPR at home versus just under 11 fantasy points on the road. The Lions pass defense is also absolutely porous. According to Michael Fabiano of NFL.com, the Lions have allowed nine touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to enemy slot receivers. At $4,900 Fitzgerald is the perfect pivot off the high chalky Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receivers Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries who are both priced at $4,900. There’s a chance that the weather negatively impacts that game, so you need to have a backup plan ready. Fitzgerald can be used in both cash and GPPs.

Sterling Shepard ($4,400) – NYG

NO OBJ? No problem. Let the target market share fuel Shepard to victory. The Washington Redskins are not good against opposing wide receivers. They have allowed over the past four weeks the sixth-most TDs, fifth-most receptions, fourth-most targets, third-most receiving yards, and second-most red-zone targets. Better yet Shepard in games without OBJ? He averages 14.5 PPR points with nine targets. With OBJ, Shepard averages 11.4 PPR points with just six targets. Assuming he can get nine targets versus the Redskins we could project Shepard to score double-digit fantasy points. Nine wide receivers that saw at least eight targets against the Redskins this season scored double-digit fantasy points. 

Michael Gallup ($3,700) – DAL

Gallup smash week? Over the past four weeks, Gallup has 305 air yards and an average depth of target of 14.5. Those are both leading the team over Amari Cooper. He has a 38% air yards market share which ranks 13th highest in the NFL at the wide receiver position over that time period. And how about the Eagles secondary? Well over the past four weeks it has allowed the fifth most receiving yards, and on the season the most red zone targets. He looks to match up with Rasul Douglas who allows the sixth-highest fantasy points per route run (.46) in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders the Eagles rank sixth-worst against number two wide receivers. Gallup has had at least five targets over the past three weeks and has been playing more snaps as well. 

DaSean Hamilton ($3,000) – DEN

Can you get any cheaper? With the injury to Emmanuel Sanders, Hamilton looks to be slotted into a starting role on the Broncos. Comes just in time for a great match up versus the San Francisco 49ers who have allowed the most fantasy points to the WR position over the past four weeks. Hamilton should see the majority of his playing time in the slot where the 49ers allowed two touchdowns in Week 13. They have allowed 11 touchdowns from the slot this season.

Curtis Samuel ($4,000) – CAR

The Cleveland Browns on the season have allowed the second most targets to the wide receiver position (24/gm), the sixth-most receptions (14.3/gm), and the seventh-most yards (180 yards). Based on Samuel’s 17.61% target market share since Week 9, we can project Samuel to four targets, three receptions, and around 45 yards receiving. The Browns, however, have not allowed many touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Over the last four weeks, they have only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers. With Funchess back in action, Samuel’s upside might be limited. He gets less red zone looks than both Funchess and D.J. Moore. Better in cash than in GPPs for a cheap wide receiver. The Browns also rank according to Football Outsiders has the best versus non-number one or two receivers which is the category Samuel falls in. Not sure if banking on the touchdown rate of a touchdown every 5.16 touches is quite sustainable. Considering D.J.Moore is scoring on every 26.5 touches.

Tight Ends

Matt LaCosse ($2,700) – DEN

He’s the cheapest TE you are going to see this week and faces the 49ers’ defense that has allowed the second-most red zone touches to the TE position. Potential to see an uptick in targets as well in the absence of Emmanuel Sanders. 

Evan Engram ($3,700) – NYG

Remember last year when Evan Engram was good? Well, that had a lot to do with the fact that there was no OBJ. Engram had volume. Similar to Sterling Shepard, Engram’s production increases when OBJ is off the field. Almost 13 PPR points per game without OBJ versus just under nine fantasy points per game with him. Targets go from 5.5 on average to 8. Washington gives up the 9th fewest fantasy points to the TE position, but the two times they allowed a tight-end over eight targets they scored double-digit fantasy points.