Quick recap
Up and down night last night hitting all the under picks on Bradley Beal all the way down to 26.5 and the +320. We also got Rui’s under 12.5, but came back to Earth with a brutal Russ beat by 1 assist with him ending at 10. Some other rough beats were the under in the Wizards game missing as well as the Wizards spread because of garbage time. Under 237.5 missed because it ended at 239. Derozan did us well easily passing 20 points but he somehow didn’t grab any rebounds and instead was dropping dimes left and right. This game was brutal with the Spurs actually blowing a lead and then to make things worse, they didn’t even cover +4 and lost by 11 somehow. Luka got his triple double, but shot horribly (9-20) from the field ending with only 22 points. Kristaps missing his threes prop by one for positive odds was almost as heartbreaking as Jonas Valanciunas deciding to play like a hof player (29-20, on 57%). But we move on to tonights nice slate, let’s have a day!
Hornets Pistons
I like Jerami Grant to have a big scoring game tonight, as the Hornets are one of the most generous teams defensively to opposing teams power forwards. His points line is set at 23.5 and I like the over and might even take 30+ at +310 for the nice positive odds that comes with it. Any alternate line could also be a move as Grant should get his fair share of buckets. Plumlee should have another solid day on the boards and could most likely be right around a double-double. I am leaning towards the under for Cody Zeller rebounds at 7.5 as he has only gone over in three of his last ten games. In the final game of the first half the Pistons got destroyed by the Knicks guards giving up 50 points between RJ, Elfrid, and Frank Ntilikina, so I like both Rozier and Lamelo to play some real solid basketball tonight. With teams eyeing Rozier in potential trades, it’s the perfect opportunity to show what he can do. Especially with Graham on limited minutes. Rozier over 21.5 points and assists seems like free money as he averages around 20 and 3 per game. If you like Rozier to be more of a facilitator, over 3.5 assists at +136 and for positive odds, he’s hit this in three straight. Tonight could very well be the Lamelo show, where he flirts with a triple double.
Hawks Raptors
The Raptors are still down a bunch of guys tonight, so even though the Hawks aren’t that great of a team, tonight should be a winnable game for them. Capela had 23 and 16 last time these teams matched up, and if the Hawks want to win, they should just let him dominate inside as much as possible. With that said I’m riding the over on all Capela props at 14.5 points and 14.5 rebounds. Seems like another Norman Powell night tonight, as it is a great matchup for him. I like him to score 25+ and could be sold for 30+. My favorite Powell play is over 3.5 made threes at plus odds. Kyle Lowry points prop is set at 22.5 and I genuinely do not like it at all. Not that he is incapable of going over, but it shouldn’t be that high for a guy who has only touched 24 in 3 of his last ten games.
Celtics Nets
This game should be another great matchup between two very talented teams. While Boston hit a rough patch over a really tough stretch, they ended the first half on a four-game winning streak. Points will be scored and while the total of 233 is very high, I lean towards the over because this game should be very close. I like Jaylen Brown tonight more then Tatum, strictly due to his matchup. The Nets have given up their fair share of points to shooting guards, ranking in the wrong side of the league in ppga. Give me over 23.5 for Jaylen Brown as I love the number its set at. He is averaging 24.7 ppg so he is normally right around that mark. I also like over 5.5 rebounds for Jaylen as he grabbed 8 in their last head-to-head matchup. Tatum is set at 24.5 and I might stay away from his prop because he did not shoot well in the last game against Brooklyn. Harden is a tank, betting his overs pretty much works out every night. 10+ assists or his double-double and win props are most likely the safest Harden picks. Kyrie had 37 last time these two teams faced off, so his 35+ and win prop double being at +630 seems like a solid dart toss for the odds.
Pelicans Timberwolves
In their first matchup this year, the Timberwolves held Zion to under 20 points, which has only happened in 5 other games this season. I’m going to ride the under 27.5 points for Zion because I just do not like how high it is set. I will ride the over 8.5 rebounds at +106 as he has been feasting on the glass as of late. Ingram had a great game the last time these two teams faced off, dropping 30 points. I like him to have another really solid game to start off the second half in a favorable matchup. His points prop is set at 24.5 which at negative odds I’m not huge on (because it’s a little over his average ppg), but he should go over. I like Towns to have a solid game, but I genuinely do not understand why his prop is set so high. At 26.5, that’s 4.5 points more than his average. He’s only hit that prop in two of his last ten games and zero of his last five games. They juiced the odds to +100, but that’s a trap.
Knicks Bucks
While this should be a game the Bucks handle, the knicks already have a convincing win over them on their resume from the first half. In the game Elfrid Peyton had a huge performance, going for 27-7-3, and with Rose still not 100%, should get plenty of run. A play I love strictly because the direct correlation to the Knicks winning games when this happens, is Elfrid Payton 15+ and Knicks win at +900 because they are something like 15-4 when he hits that total. Even 10+ and win at +540 has a ton of value. I like Giannis under 30.5 points, as the Knicks will more than likely be swarming him whenever he touches the ball, similar to how they shut down Sabonis. I also like Divincenzo under 10.5 points as I just don’t think he is the guy to beat them tonight. Seems like it could be a great night to ride the over 20.5 for Khris Middleton as he consistently drops 20+. Should the Knicks employ the triple teams on Giannis somebody will need to step up.
Official Sick Pix
Jerami Grant over 5.5 rebounds +110
Mason Plumlee over 14.5 rebounds+assists +104
Lamelo over 18.5 points +100
Rozier 30+ and win +1400 (how can I not add this?)
Hornets moneyline
Norman Powell over 3.5 made threes +106/ over 25.5 points -104
Clint Capela over 29.5 points and rebounds
John Collins 20+ and win +265
Trae Young double-double and win +220
Jaylen Brown over 23.5 points -116
Karl Towns under 26.5 -122
Lonzo Ball under 16.5 points -118
Anthony Edwards under 19.5 -106
Ricky Rubio under 9.5 assists -140
Julius Randle over 23.5 points -114
Coby White 15+ and win
Zach Lavine 30+ and win +285
Wendell Carter 15+ and win/double-double and win +540/+560 (love these with Embiid out)
Tobias Harris over 24.5 points -120/ 30+ +220
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