Colby Cummings looks to rebound from a rough week 8 with his week 9 NFL betting picks. As it stands, he is hitting 59.61% on the year.
Week 8 Performance
Week 8 was one to forget. Our picks went 1-6. The worst of the worst was Baker Mayfield hanging a whopping 6 points. Even in the weather conditions the “Mistake on the Lake” delivered, this was BAD. I mean it’s the Raider’s defense for crying out loud. Missing on the Browns -2.5 was a tough one to swallow, and I apologize for expecting the Browns to win 2 weeks in a row and betting against apparent MVP-candidate Derek Carr (which is totally bogus btw).
We did however get some live bets in to stop the bleeding. I was able to get the Saints +2.5 and Seahawks +2.5 at +265 odds. We’ll talk more about live betting in my weekly advice. I also took the Giants to have more punts on Monday Night Football (-250) and hit 1/2 winning margin bets on the Buccaneers (net +1.60 units). Thankfully the last ditch effort to salvage the week helped us a little. That got us to 6.25-7 on the week, and overall 59.61% on the year. You can follow my live picks on twitter @BasedColby.
Weekly Advice: Live Betting
Lines move dramatically play to play throughout a game. Chaos ensues, and chaos means value. It presents a good opportunity to get a team you like and some points too. Things get a little wonky as people see a quarter of play and think that’s how the entire game is going to go. For example, Detroit won the first quarter 7-0 vs. Indianapolis before Indy won 41-21. If you liked Indianapolis but didn’t like the pre-match number, there was your chance to get a better number if what you’ve seen thus far doesn’t change your opinion what the outcome will be. I was having a bad week and went to the live betting markets to try and find value. They gave me Seattle and points, and I have to take that. Disclaimer: Be responsible. Bankroll management, discipline, and trusting your reads are all still important while live betting.
Week 9 Pick
I don’t love this week’s betting board, but I’m going to make it work to ensure you all a chance to make some money with our NFL week 9 betting picks. I only have 1 straight bet for you, but a few teasers and moneyline parlays to make this week a profitable one.
Lamar Jackson has had a down year for his standards. But coming off this loss he’ll bounce back. The Raven’s offensive line ranks 12th in pass blocking while the Colts defense ranks 21st in pass rush. The Colts have played the easiest schedule this year thus far, and the Ravens are their biggest test, and they’ll flunk miserably. The Colts offense is trending up but seeing a Ravens defense ranked 5th in both DVOA and EPA/play will be their undoing. Getting a team as good as the Ravens under a FG is an auto-bet.
6-point Teasers -110 Odds
Vegas sets good lines. No surprise there. So lets move them around and get to a more favorable number, and put a couple of them together to get back to standard juice.
NO @ TB under 61.5 and NE -1
This one will seem crazy. Antonio Brown is back and supposedly in great shape. But I like the a teased under here. I got it at the open before the line moved, and got a fantastic number at 61.5. A division game always calls for a grind-it-out game. Tampa Bay’s run blocking is 17th vs. New Orleans’s run stop ranked 7th. I think we have two good defenses here, and even if it is tough to bet against Brady’s offense and Brees, who did at least get 20 points vs. Chicago. The Buccaneers had some struggles last week vs. the Giants and this will have some points no doubt, but not 62 of them.
Belichick isn’t losing to the Jets, even if he does sound a little defeated this year. -1 is essentially picking winner, or in this case picking the Jets to lose, which is always easy. The Jet’s run blocking ranks 27th vs. NE defense ranked 9th in run stopping.
CHI/TEN under 52.5 and DEN/ATL under 56
We know the matchup here. Chicago’s good defense but bad offense and Tennessee’s bad defense but good offense. So how does it shake out? I don’t care what defense you put in front of this Bear’s offense, they don’t have an identity or any answers. So despite the Titan’s defensive struggles, I don’t see the Bears scoring much. And on the other side, the Bears held Brees to 20 points in regulation, and the Titans struggled with the Bengal’s defense. Tennessee will win a game full of struggles without a ton of finesse.
Get ready to hear something crazy: Atlanta’s defense isn’t THAT bad. They rank 1st in pass rush and 3rd in run stop. Denver ranks 28th in attacking both of those measures. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s defense ranks 7th and 10th in DVOA and EPA/play, respectively. Also, with as much attention as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones bring to this offense, they only rank 23rd in DVOA. How this total is as high as 49.5, AND trending up, shocks me. Wait until it is about to close at 50 and get it under 56 on the 6-point teaser.
Favorite -319 Odds
Don’t get too creative. The Steelers are playing the abysmal Cowboys and the Chiefs are probably even better than last year.
The Buccaneers are a very complete team and this game is the biggest the franchise have seen in awhile. The Jets are an automatic bet-against, and the 49ers have half the team in the blue medical tent. Disclaimer: Packers opened at -250 on moneyline before being taken down due to the COVID news.
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 9 betting picks. Check out the new podcast “Let’$ Cash” for all your gambling needs. Also be sure to visit CrowWorthy.com for all your sports content and The Football Discussion for all things NFL.