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Week 8 Lines That Don’t Make Sense

Coming off of an exhilarating week 7 slate, week 8 is setting up to also produce some chaos. In fact, only three games this week–– Jets-Chiefs, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bucs-Giants–– do I truly feel confident in predicting the winner of the game. With that said, here are some lines that don’t make sense to me.

Last week’s record: 2-1

Saints @ Bears (+4)

I know that the Bears looked incredibly pathetic offensively against the Rams on Monday night, but the Saints have played several disappointing games this season. With Michael Thomas out yet again, Emmanuel Sanders out with COVID, and Marquez Callaway, who was a factor for New Orleans last week, also out, the Saints will be relying on a bunch of little-known receivers. Of course, Drew Brees will be playing outside of a dome here in Chicago, which also doesn’t bode well for the Saints. These two teams met in the Windy City last year, but remember, that was with Teddy Two Gloves under center for the Saints, not Brees; plus, Trubisky was quarterbacking the Bears, not Nick Foles. It was a monster Latavius Murray game last season that propelled the Saints to a victory, so I would think it would need to be a great schematic game from Sean Peyton, utilizing Kamara and Murray, to win AND cover the 4 points. With Chicago surprisingly getting Allen Robinson for this matchup, who passed the concussion protocol yesterday, facing a Saints secondary who has had trouble communicating this season, I expect the Bears to cover the 4 points, and potentially even win the game outright.

Nick Foles and David Montgomery.

Titans @ Bengals (+7)

On paper, it might not make sense for me to have faith in a 1-5-1 team to cover against a 5-1 team who is coming off of a loss, but here we are. For starters, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 5-2 ATS this season, while the Titans are just 2-4 ATS. Joe Mixon being out again for the Bengals obviously isn’t great, but Bernard can give them probably 80% of Mixon for this game, and might even stumble his way into the endzone once or twice. The huge concern for the Bengals is slowing down Derrick Henry. Spoiler alert: They won’t be able to stop Henry. However, Joey B is a gamer and just has a knack for leading his team down the field for points and making things interesting. Plus, the Titans defense is allowing opponents to convert on nearly 61% of their 3rd downs this season, over 6% more than the 31st worst 3rd down defense and over 10% worse than the 30th worst 3rd down defense. I expect Burrow and the Bengals to cover the touchdown spread.

Jets @ Chiefs (-20)

I’m not super confident with this one given the large number, but, what the heck, why not? The New York Football Jets absolutely suck, and the Kansas City Chiefs are the antithesis of that, that is, they are very, very good at football. The “anticipated” score for this game is about 35-15, which seems to make sense given that the Chiefs average 31 PPG and the Jets average a disgusting 12 PPG. To make matters worse for the Jets, their best receiver, Jamison Crowder, is expected to be out with a groin injury; additionally, Breshad Perriman will also be out. However, the main storyline, which will no doubtingly be an advantage for the Chiefs, is the Lev Bell revenge game. You would have to be a moron to not think that Andy Reid is going to scheme up some wonderful plays for him to mock Adam Gase. The Jets will need a fluky special teams play or a tipped ball for an interception to even keep things close early on. Kansas should cover by at least three touchdowns, and, also, why would you ever want to place money on the Jets?

Lev Bell, a Jet just a few weeks ago, is now a Kansas City Chief. He plays against the Jets today.