Colby Cummings, host of “The Football Discussion” podcast offers up his week 7 NFL betting picks. Gamblers be warned, these picks may cause an erection lasting more than 4 hours.
Eating Crow
Last week our NFL betting picks went 4-5 (44.5%) which is below our target goal of 55-57%. While we still sit at 56.95-39-1 (59.4%) on the season, week 6 got the best of us.
Best Hit:
After missing out on a teaser (which we’ll get into shortly), I did what no gambler should do; I started chasing. Somehow this paid off. So let that be a lesson. Poor judgement and discipline always leads to positive results. I wanted to salvage the week and bet the under in the second Monday Night Football game, and it paid off, even though some garbage time charades by the Cowboys and Cardinals made me sweat it out. I deserved that though, since I made a rookie mistake that somehow rewarded me.
Worst Miss:
The Patriots screwed me (twice) like I was on Robert Kraft’s massage table. We had them on a teaser at -2 and on an “easy” moneyline parlay. Losing outright created a swing of going 6.5-3 (68%) to 4-5 (44.5%). They’ve never REALLY cheated, but I wish they would have on Sunday. And not to be outdone, the Broncos even had some fun with the upset win. In a week full of near misses, this one especially stung.
Week 7 Betting Tip: Timing
Sports betting markets mimic the stock market. The numbers shift around based on supply and demand, public opinion, emotion, and of course, they follow the money. Its your turn to take advantage of this.
See what direction the line has headed, and how dramatically/fast it has moved. Maybe the number has moved, and you’ve lost value near key numbers. Or you can fade the public money and wait until last minute. Let the number come to you.
There are a couple other advantages to waiting to lock in your picks. Weather becomes a factor 2-3 days before game time. Key injuries might not move the line or total, but maybe it affects the matchup, and styles make fights. However, there are times where you’ll want to move early. If you see a number you like, and it appears it might move against you, don’t miss the boat on it.
One last piece of research advice. Look-ahead lines available at different books can be compared to current lines to see how recent events have affected Vegas’ perception of a team. Maybe they are overreacting or they’re still confident. This way you can compare that to your own evaluation of a team. Knowledge is power, so let’s use that power for your week 7 NFL betting picks.
Picks:
As is often the case in the NFL, the lines are tough, and that’s how Vegas keeps making money. I don’t have a ton of straight bets, but getting creative this week gives us a winning card with our week 7 NFL betting picks.
Buccaneers -3
The Buccaneers defense didn’t take kindly to Aaron Rodgers’ TD celebration that I imagine was directed towards Danica Patrick. Derek Carr wont produce against this defense either. They rank 1st in DVOA and EPA/play. That’s because the pass rush is ranked 1st as well, and the run stop win rate is 4th. In Tampa Tompa Bay, it’s “come for Tom Brady, but stay for the defense.” Speaking of Tom Brady, his offense is ranked 7th in DVOA and 13th in EPA play vs the Raiders’ defense, who is 31st and 28th, respectively. Raiders head coach Jon Gruden isn’t getting his revenge on Tom Brady anytime soon.
Eagles -3.5 (if it gets there)
The Eagles are currently -4.5, and that number has already come down 2. I love that. If it gets below four, I’ll jump on it quicker than Michael Thomas jumps on Twitter to cry to strangers on the internet. The Eagles defense is 12th in EPA/play compared the Giants’ offense ranking 31st. It makes sense; head coach Joe Judge is an “old-school” guy, since both sides of the ball have a 1920’s passing game. The Giants rank 32nd in pass rush and 29th in pass blocking. The Eagles’ trenches rank 7th and 6th receptively in attacking those weaknesses. If it gets below 4, I’m buying it, and even if it doesn’t, 4.5 is still appealing.
Chiefs Moneyline
I know I said I have some creativity in this week’s picks. And picking the defending Super Bowl Champions to simply win isn’t creative. I won’t make up some bullshit excuse. I just like this pick, plain and simple. A major weakness of the Chiefs is their run defense (29th) but the Broncos run blocking (31st) doesn’t present much exploitation here. The opposite is true as well, where the Chiefs run blocking has struggled (27th), but the Broncos run D (27th) doesn’t appear to have much of an edge there either. The Chiefs strengths are Broncos weaknesses, and the Chiefs weaknesses are also the Broncos weaknesses. The Broncos will come back to Earth after upsetting the Patriots in week 6, and we’ll make money off it.
Teasers
Don’t like a line? Screw it, move away from it. The same philosophy the Jets had with Le’Veon Bell, but this will work much better for us.
Cowboys @ Washington over 38, Packers +2.5 -110 Odds
Dalton isn’t good, but he’s better than what we saw last week. The Giants scored 19 last week, and Dallas will score more. Also, the Cowboys are due for positive regression to the mean in turnover luck. Dallas has 10 fumbles, but only recovered 10% of them. Washington ranks in the 18-23 range in fumbles forced. The Cowboy’s offense is 32nd in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play. Even Kyle Allen can get it going vs. them.
The Packers got whooped vs. the Buccaneers. That was more about the Bucs being good than the Packers being bad. Speaking of bad, the Texans are 1-5 against the spread whereas the Packers are 4-1. The Packers offense is 4th in DVOA and EPA/play and the Texans defense ranks 27th and 32nd, respectively. Get away from the the key of -3.5, and make it a more favorable +2.5.
Cardinals +9.5, 49ers @ Patriots Under 50 -110 Odds
The Cardinals defense is flying under the radar right now. They are 9th in DVOA and 10th in EPA/play. Seattle has more close calls than than your friend who buys 3 pregnancy test a month for his “situationship“. The Cardinals can keep it close by riding their 3rd ranked run blocking line against the 21st ranked run stop defense of the Seahawks. The Patriots WRs are struggling, but they boast the 1st ranked run blocking line vs. a 49ers defense ranked 25th in stopping the run. Don’t expect Jimmy G to carve up a stellar Patriots secondary. There will be lots of clock being chewed in this one, and the clock will strike 0 before we see much scoring.
Saints -1, Browns @ Bengals Over 46.5 -110 Odds
These are the last 2 teaser options I like enough to consider betting. I’ll include them because I believe there is value in them, but I’ll hold off betting them for now, and see if an even better number appears. The Saints are coming off a bye and have faced the 6th hardest DVOA schedule this season. For as much attention Drew Brees’ aging has drawn, the offense is still 6th in DVOA. They also have a favorable matchup vs the Panthers run defense (26th) where the Saints currently rank 8th in run blocking. We’ll definitely see Alvin Kamara’s gold smile at some point this weekend. The Panthers were handled while at home vs. the Bears, and now they get to visit Drew Brees’ home. Best of luck Teddy Two Gloves.
Earlier this year the Browns beat the Bengals 35-30. This time around should feature points as well. Expect Joe Mixon to come out swinging behind his 11th ranked run blocking line facing the Brown’s 30th ranked run stop defense. On the flip side, the Bengals’ defense ranks 27th in rushing the passer and 24th in stopping the run. Baker can hand it off and have time to throw, the recipe for his success.
Moneyline Parlays:
Favorite: -139 Odds
Even though last week’s favorite didn’t cash, this one will need a miracle to not cash again. And miracles don’t happen in back-to-back weeks.
- Chiefs
- Bills
- Chargers
Option 2: +142 Odds
This one is more interesting, but still likely to cash. The last leg is the Monday Night Football game, so if you want to hedge after 2/3 hit, you’d be looking at +0.66 guaranteed profit. Or be a real gambler and let that shit ride.
- Packers
- Browns
- Rams
There you have it. Colby Cummings‘ week 7 NFL betting picks and logic behind every bet. Stay tuned for exciting news surrounding “The Football Discussion” podcast and Crow Worthy. Best of luck in your betting, and Lets Cash this week.
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