Week 7 offers an exciting slate of games. The Steelers and Titans square off for the right to the top seed in the AFC at the moment. Lev Bell joins the Chiefs explosive offense in Denver. Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray matchup in the desert. However, some games have suspicious lines. Here are three Week 7 lines that don’t make sense to me.
Packers (-3) @ Texans
I know that the Packers just got thumped by the Bucs and won’t have their left tackle David Bakhtiari and their starting running back Aaron Jones, and the Texans almost beat the 5-0 Titans, but a 4-1 team only being favored by 3.5 against a 1-5 team doesn’t seem right. The Bucs defense simply imposed their physicality and will on the Packers, but the Texans defense is much inferior to that of the Bucs, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA. Given that, it feels like a “get right” game for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.
Additionally, Jaire Alexander will help limit the Texans’ passing attack, and, as we all know, the Texans offensive line has been terrible for a while, so Za’Darius Smith will be creating havoc for DeShaun Watson all afternoon. The Texans will keep things respectable, but Green Bay should pull away with this one. Look out for Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon to run well against the Texans.
49ers @ Patriots (-3)
Will Belichick really lose two straight home games? Will he really let the guy that he infamously traded away beat him? The answer is almost a definitive no. The 49ers, predictably, came back to life a little bit last week on Sunday Night Football against the Rams, while the Patriots looked lost offensively against the Broncos because of a lack of practice time due to New England’s COVID situation. The point is, these two teams will each regress back to their norm this week; that is, the 49ers will not look as crisp this while the Pats will surely look more functional than last week. The Niners are 2-0 this season on the east coast, but those two wins were against the embarrassment that is the New York Jets and Giants. The Patriots should control the pace of this game and pull away in their Week 7 matchup.
Lions (+1) @ Falcons
This game is just gross. Two sad franchises squaring off. Whoever is leading this game entering the 4th quarter will go, “Alright guys, let’s do everything we can to lose this game in a classic heartbreaking fashion.” And that’s essentially why I’m confused why the Falcons are getting 2.5. Both of these teams are weird and bad, so and, it should be a pick’em. Falcons fans might believe in Raheem Morris, which is cool, but something about the Falcons being favorites at home never makes me confident in them. I’ll be shocked if Stafford doesn’t put up 300+ yards on this Falcons secondary, even if some of that comes in the form of a back-door cover. This one of the more exploitable Week 7 lines.