How did I do in Week 14 with last week’s article? Jared Goff, Kenny Golladay both busted hard, Jameis Winston and Spencer Ware both came through, and Josh Allen continues to dominate! I missed on Cameron Brate and Marlon Mack, but they scored which made them viable. They did not put up any type of yardage and still both scored under 13 fantasy points.
As a reminder, kill players are going to be players that I am fading. Marry are the players that are locked and loaded. And lastly, chill are those oh so sexy sleepers that we are just tryna to Netflix and Chill with. So who’s ready for some Kill, Marry, and Chill? For Chill, I will also take on the challenge of only chilling with players that have a start percentage with less than 50% in ESPN Leagues. Because I actually give a shit about you and helping you make start/sit decisions.
Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers
Currently ranked outside my top 24 QBs…Rodgers has a very nice spot on my kill list this week. I pumped him up last week on the DFS article, in yet he could not get it done. So this week with the Packers playing @ the Bears? YEAH RIGHT. Over the past four weeks, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to the QB position (7.73/game). Rodgers has scored under 20 fantasy points in two of his last four games and that was versus Arizona and Minnesota. The Bears have the second highest 14.4% pressure rate in the NFL.
Running Back – Tevin Coleman
But the matchup is so good? The Cardinals rank fourth worst in total fantasy points allowed to the running back position to go along with the most rushing yards allowed all season. But I prefer Ito Smith in this matchup over Coleman if Ito Smith is healthy and active. Smith has seen 45% of the snaps over the past two weeks (the highest this season), with Coleman’s snaps going down. Smith already leads the team in red-zone carries (18) and has out-carried Coleman the last two weeks. With Coleman being an impending free agent, I think you see Judge Ito Smith lay down the hammer in Week 15 versus the Cardinals, not Tevin Coleman. Coleman’s role in the passing game has also been equal to Smith’s as over the past four weeks, they have the same number of catches (8) and both have under ten total targets. Only play Coleman is Smith is inactive.
Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – MIA
Get him on your bench this week because you are point chasing with this player. There’s a reason why Stills has been better as of late because in home games with Ryan Tannehill who has a 12%+ touchdown rate he does amazing. In homes game with Tannehill Stills was averaging over 22 fantasy points per game. In games on the road? 4 points. Yep. A grand total of four points. Especially with the Vikings who have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the WR over the past four weeks, Stills is an easy player to avoid this week. The only receivers that have scored double-digit fantasy points versus the Vikings have all scored touchdowns. In his past two full seasons Tannehill averages just 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, and the Vikings have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns to receivers this season (9). No team allows less passing touchdowns per game at home than the Vikings (.7)
Tight End – Ian Thomas
We’ve seen this story before. Fringe tight end gets 11 targets and everybody hops on his d*ck. But here’s the thing. More often than not that game is not an indicator of an increase in action or production, but rather an ominous foreshadowing. Against the Saints defense that has allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points get the f*ck outta here with Ian Thomas. They have not allowed a tight end to exceed 54 yards this season. If you are in the playoffs playing Thomas won’t help you win.
Quarterback – Jared Goff – LAR
I killed him last week and he scored negative points so I was right of course. But this week you need to hop right back on the Goff train. He is about to go OFF. Or go, Goff. However, you prefer or whatever gets you most excited. Here’s why. The Eagles defense = 💩 Over the last three games the Eagles have allowed 280 passing yards per game and on the season have allowed an average of 340 passing yards per game on the road. So the yardage will be there for Goff and so will the touchdowns. On the road, they have allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. To make this even JUICER, Goff is averaging over 34 fantasy points per game at home. He is averaging just under 17 fantasy points per game on the road. 😂😂😂 Since the Eagles bye week they have allowed over 400 yards of offense in four of their last five games.
Running Back – Kenneth Dixon – BAL
My dude Kenny D! I am fully off the Gus Bus and onto the Dixon train. The Buccaneer have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the RB position and I think we see Dixon take over the RB role in Baltimore. The team has already talked about getting him more involved and he is so much more dynamic than Edwards. Dixon is also more involved in the passing game than Edwards and Edwards has scored less than 12 fantasy points in three straight games despite averaging more than 20 carries per game. Dixon’s snaps have continued to increase so this is the week the Gus Bus needs fixing.
Wide Receiver – Sterling Shepard – NYG
Can you trust Sterling Shepard this week? Well, if you look at the Titans’ defense they were absolutely roasted last week agaisnt in the slot. Dede Westbrook went for 7-88-1 in Week 13 against them. Shepard lines up in the slot 66% of the time so I love the matchup versus the Titans who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to the WR over the last four weeks. With no OBJ again, expect Shepard to get more targets especially in the red-zone where he received 3 last week. The Titans have allowed nine red-zoen targets over the last four weeks. And for DFS purposes if you want to get sneaky Russell Shepard is an interesting play as well. He played 72.2% of the snaps and caught a touchdown from the slot.
Tight End – Vance McDonald – PIT
Who’s ready to dance? My post-hype breakout tight end for 2018, I think this is a big week for the Vance Monster. If you are in your fantasy playoffs and you need tight end firepower you need the Vance. He has the highest upside of any fringe tight end this week. The Patriots allow the second air yards and 12th most YAC and McDonald ranks third in the NFL IN YAC at the tight end position. The Patriots have allowed the third-most touchdowns to the TE position and the second-most red-zone targets. The Patriots always try to take away your best weapon and that is for sure not Vance McDonald. McDonald still is playing the majority of snaps (63.33%) and is second on the team in red-zone targets (6) behind Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins – MIN
We all saw what Cousins did on Monday night. He put on a full-on stinker. But I expect a huge bounce-back effort. Teams that lose by double-digit points on the road, more often than not show up big in their next home game. Against the Miami Dolphins, I am very confident in Cousins. The Dolphins have the eighth-worst pressure rate at 10.2% and they have allowed the most fantasy points to the QB over the past four weeks. Four of the last six QBs they have faced have scored more than 25 fantasy points and Xavien Howard will also not be playing in this contest.
Running Back – Doug Martin – OAK
The Muscle Hamster is back baby. The Bengals are allowing the most fantasy points over the past four weeks to the RB position and Martin has been super solid since taking over for the Raiders. Since Week 8 every single game Martin has seen at least 10 carries. Since Week 10 all running backs that have faced the Bengals that have seen double-digit carries have scored at least 16 or more fantasy points. Outside Dwayne Washington.
Wide Receiver – Robby Anderson – NYJ
The matchup is great for the Jets’ wide receivers and so is his opportunity. Anderson has had at least five targets in eight straight games and Quincy Enunwa is out in this contest. The Texans have allowed the most fantasy points to the WR position over the last three weeks including 96 yards or more receiving to T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, and Corey Davis. Anderson lines up on the right side of the field which the Texans rank 30th in DVOA.
Tight End – Chris Herndon – NYJ
Herndon this season in games at home with Sam Darnold at QB, has averaged 10.93 PPR fantasy points per game. His biggest boost from having Darnold under center is his TD rate increases substantially. Zero touchdowns with Josh McCown, but a .38 touchdown rate with Darnold in the eight games they have played together. Over the past four weeks, Herndon has run the third most routes on the Jets and the matchup is excellent against Houston this week. Over the past four weeks, the Texans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, the eighth-most receptions, second-most targets, fourth-most yards, third-most touchdowns, fourth-most red-zone touches, and fifth-most red zone targets! Herndon regardless of QB averages almost double the the amount of fantasy points at home verus on the road. With the news of Quincy Enunwa also becoming air apparent