The final quarter of the season is here, and with the playoff picture rounding into shape, it’s nut crunching time for a bunch of teams. This week’s slate features some great matchups, and with that, here are three Week 14 lines that don’t make sense.
Last week’s record: 1-2
Overall Record: 8-7
Vikings @ Bucs (-7)
I know it’s a big line, and it’s a 1p.m. game for Kirk Cousins, so he shouldn’t be too bad, but this is the spot where the Bucs need to step up and remind the NFC that they are at least a somewhat dangerous team. Tom Brady has lost three straight home games for the first time in his career. I do not expect him to lose a 4th straight. The Bucs haven’t won a football game since November 15th. I expect that to change. Ok, that’s cool and all, but why will they cover the 7 points?
This is a statement game for the Bucs. Brady has had two weeks to get on track with this offense and all his weapons. He hasn’t gotten to do a post-win video in almost a month. This will be a “no mercy” game. The Bucs will not step on the brakes. Plus, their defense will have something to prove and I think will rise to the occasion against Dalvin Cook, making the Vikings offense one dimensional.
Titans (-7.5) @ Jaguars
Normally, I’m weary of a big line in a divisional matchup. However, the Titans and Jags give me reason to think otherwise; I think it’s the perfect storm for the Titans to win big. On the one hand, the Titans got embarassed last week at home. After throttling the Colts the previous week, they went down 38-7 to the Browns at home. They let Baker Mayfield do whatever he wanted to do to them in the first half, and then let Nick Chubb break off some good runs in the second half.
Early on last season, the Titans were a tremendous “seesaw” team, and given the huge win in Indy two weeks ago and the dud last week to Cleveland, they are in a great position to smack the Jags this week. Now, on the other hand, Jacksonville played the Vikings hard last week in Minnesota. To me, though, they used up a ton of their friskiness/luck in that game. To start the game with a ricochet touchdown told you everything about how that game would go, and Mike Glennon, I guarantee you, won’t be leading a second-straight game-tying drive late in the 4th. Look for big games out of Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.
Ravens @ Browns (+3)
I do not know why the Browns are underdogs here. I get it, the Ravens need this game more than the Browns do, but 3 points? Really? Now, Wyatt Teller being out for Cleveland is a big deal. He’s been the stabilizing force to their amazing ground game this season. However, the Browns are rolling and they want to avenge their pathetic loss to the Ravens from earlier in the season. They’ve surely had this game circled on their calendars. Plus, there’s still an outside chance that the Browns win the division, especially if the Steelers lose up in Buffalo tonight. Look, can I see the Browns come out flat and the whole “first winning season in forever” narrative backfires on them in this game? Yes. But I feel like I’m getting free points here, and the Ravens haven’t beaten a playoff bound team since November 8th (Colts).
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