How did I do in Week 11 with last week’s article? So how did you kill, marry and chill in fantasy football for Week 12? Well here’s a look at how I do it.
As a reminder, kill players are going to be players that I am fading. Marry are the players that are locked and loaded. And lastly, chill are those oh so sexy sleepers that we are just tryna to Netflix and Chill with. So who’s ready for some Kill, Marry, and Chill? For Chill, I will also take on the challenge of only chilling with players that have a start percentage with less than 50% in ESPN Leagues. Because I actually give a shit about you and helping you make start/sit decisions.
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins – MIN
Over the past four weeks, the Green Bay Packers defense has allowed just over 16 fantasy points per game to the QB position. On the season they have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to the QB position. Then enter Kirk Cousins who has only scored 21 plus fantasy points three times this season. The Packers have the highest pressure of the QB position (14.4%) on QB dropbacks this season and a 17% sack conversion rate. Cousins has seen the most number of dropbacks when under pressure. The Packers defense has allowed more than 19 fantasy points to the QB just twice this season.
Running Back – Chris Carson – SEA
In home games this season, no team has allowed fewer rushing attempts per game than the Carolina Panthers. At home, they allow on average just 18 rushing attempts per game. They allow the second-fewest rushing yards (78.6), and .6 touchdowns on average in home games. Carson is a volume-centric running back. Every single game that he has scored double-digit fantasy points he has seen at least 17 carries. The highest rushing total the Panthers have allowed at home was back in Week 1, where Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 69 yards.
Tight End – Kyle Rudolph – MIN
Right alongside Cousins is a one sir Kyle Rudolph who has been more like a ghost than a reindeer leading Santa. Green Bay gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to the TE position. Only one tight end has scored more than 10 fantasy points against them all season. Rudolph just is not seeing any significant target share to give me confidence in any of my lineups especially with his lack of upside in the passing game as a whole.
Quarterback – Philip Rivers – LAC
Can you believe some people have him as a sit this week? #LazyAnalysis. They must be looking at the fact that the Cardinals gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the QB position. However, I don’t think you can bench Rivers in any matchup right now. The worst game he has had all year was 15 fantasy points and he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every single game he has played. The Cardinals have allowed two passing touchdowns to each QB they have faced over the past two weeks. Arizona does have a good pass rush creating pressure on 11.7% of dropbacks and having a league-high 20% conversion rate. However, Rivers has been nuts under pressure this season. He has the highest quarterback rating of any starting QB when under pressure.
Wide Receiver – Devin Funchess – CAR
Don’t hate on the Funchess. I know everybody hates Funchess after the week he put up last week, but I say it’s time to buy back in. The Seattle Seahawks struggle against big outside wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Marvin Jones, and Davante Adams all had double-digit fantasy points agasint the Seahawks. They have allowed the third most receiving yards to the WR position over the last four weeks, sixth most targets, and fifth most receptions. Funchess still leads the team in routes run and is tied with D.J. Moore with 21 targets over the last four weeks. The biggest thing for Funchess is his work in the red zone. 10 red zone opportunities versus Moore’s 4 this season. Seattle over the past four weeks has allowed the fourth-most red zone touches to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed five touchdowns to the WR position in the last four weeks. Two of those touchdowns came on Tre Flowers who will be covering Funchess in Week 12.
Running Back – Sony Michel – NE
It’s easy to forget, but before Michel’s injury, he has seeing north of 18 carries per game. With the injury and the matchups against the Bears and Titans, Michel has struggled to produce over the last month. However, coming out of the bye week you need to have confidence in Michel. The Jets over the past four weeks have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to the RB position. Teams against the Jets are averaging 28.4 rushing attempts per game. If the Patriots predictably get up big in this game, expect Michel to get fed throughout. Only one running back (Frank Gore) didn’t score double-digit fantasy points versus the Jets when they had at least 15 carries.
Tight End – David Njoku – CLE
Ahh, the Browns, back in action against the Bengals in Week 12. The Bengals’ defense has been terrible versus the TE position allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the TE position. Njoku has been struggling as of late, with just five receptions over the past two weeks. The reason to buy into him this week is he is going to see coverage from Shawn Williams on the Bengals. Williams is the third-lowest rated safety in coverage via Pro Football Focus. Njoku still ranks fifth at TE in the NFL in total routes run and eighth in total targets. The Bengals defense is on a downward spiral, making Njoku a nice play. Njoku ranks 10th this season in total air yards at the TE position and the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most air yards this season.
Quarterback – Deshaun Watson – HOU
There’s one reason why you can believe that Watson has a big game against the Titans. The Titans do not rush the passer very well, which is exactly how you beat Watson. Watson went for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns the first time these teams met and I think he can do it again. The Titans pressure the QB on a league-low 8.6% of passing plays. We saw last week Andrew Luck rip them up when he had time in the pocket, so have faith in Watson in Week 12 on Monday night football. Watson has also played much better in Houston. In four games in Houston, Watson has scored 22 plus fantasy points.
Running Back – Josh Adams – PHI
Can Josh Adams get it done in Week 12 against the Giants? I think that he can. Adams separated himself from the pack last week with a 58% carry share and 18.2% target share. Also ran a season-high of routes run (16). This season the Giants have allowed nine running backs to score at least 14 fantasy points.
Since the #Giants traded Damon Harrison, the team has allowed three 100-yard rushers in three games:
Adrian Peterson (26-149-1)
Matt Breida (17-101-1)
Peyton Barber (18-106-1)
Josh Adams week?
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) November 20, 2018
RBs vs. Giants
Before Damon Harrison trade: 3.87 yards per carry, 36.1% success rate (per @numberFire)
Since: 5.27 yards per carry, 46.8% success rate
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) November 20, 2018
Wide Receiver – Marquez Valdes-Scantling – GB
On paper, the matchup looks difficult. Minnesota gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to the WR position. However, MVS has a chance to produce against the Vikings as a secondary receiver to Davante Adams. It looks like Randall Cobb is going to play which means that MVS will probably end up seeing more looks on the outside while occasionally playing the slot. I’d say his floor is that of what we saw from Geronimo Allison back in Week 2 who had six receptions for 64 yards on six targets. MVS has run the 15th most routes in the last four weeks. We have also seen them over the past two weeks that secondary receivers yield more targets than the number ones when playing the Vikings. Taylor Gabriel saw nine targets and Marvin Jones saw eight targets.
Tight End – Chris Herndon IV – NYJ
The Patriots this season have allowed the second most touchdowns to the tight end position. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the TE position.