Looking for some daily fantasy football knowledge outside Chill, Marry, Kill for Week 12? Keep in mind many players featured in that article can apply to daily fantasy as well.
Here are your best DraftKings values for the Week 12 games. With two teams on bye weeks and three games in the books, we have a smaller main slate (10 games). The best strategy as always with the tight salaries is to get your studs at running back (Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Nick Chubb) and go cheaper at the other positions. So wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends will be heavily featured here.
Quarterbacks – QBs you can get for equal or less than $6,000 in Draftkings
Tom Brady ($6,500) – NE
Wait what…but he is over $6,000? Yes, I know that, but I felt it was important to bring up Brady here. He’s is the highest price QB on the main slate, but I think that is going to make him have low ownership across the board. Brady has not been great in fantasy as of late and averaged just 15.4 fantasy points per game on the road. However, three of those four away games were against teams that rank top seven in the fewest fantasy points allowed to the QB position. The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed multiple touchdowns through the air in six of their seven last games played. The Jets also rank third worst in teams playing this week in terms of sack conversion rate (11%). Brady should have time to throw. Matt Barkley for the Buffalo Bills in Week 10 put up 17 plus fantasy points because he only saw pressure on 5 (19.2%) of his dropbacks. That was the lowest of any QB in Week 10.
Russell Wilson ($5,600) – SEA
As mentioned in one of my earlier articles from this week I expect the Seahawks to struggle to run the football in this matchup. However, they should be able to pass the ball effectively. The Panthers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the QB position this season, and the sixth-most fantasy points over the past four weeks. Wilson averages 20 plus fantasy points on the road this season, to go along with 4.3 rushing attempts and 28 rushing yards. Carolina is allowing 2.2 passing touchdowns per game at home this season. Wilson is a QB you can play confidently in cash lineups.
Baker Mayfield ($5,500) – CLE
Over the past four weeks, no team has allowed more fantasy points to the QB position than the Bengals. Mayfield is coming off his bye-week so he could have low ownership. They have allowed 10 passing touchdowns second most in the NFL. Coming off his best game of the season where Mayfield threw three touchdowns and scored 22 plus fantasy points Mayfield is a DFS option in Week 12.
Nick Mullens ($5,400) – SF
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers give up the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position. We’ve seen two games from Mullens this season. One has been good and the other not so good. Against the Buccaneers, it is going to be a good day for Mullens. The Buccaneers generate pressure on just 10.1% of dropbacks which ranks 8th worst of the teams playing this week.
Andy Dalton ($5,300) – CIN
Andy Dalton in his last six games against the Cleveland Browns has thrown 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Against this current Browns’ roster, I do like Dalton’s chances to perform at a high level. Over the past seven weeks, the Browns have allowed 324 passing yards per game and 1.85 touchdowns per game. Even without A.J. Green, Dalton could have some solid fantasy output. Great play across GPPs.
Josh McCown ($4,300) – NYJ / Derek Carr ($4,600) – OAK
The sub 5K QBs need to be targeted! They open up a bunch of opportunities for you to fill out the rest of your roster with studs across the board. You are going to see sub .25% ownership of these guys, and that may not be warranted. For Derek Carr yes he has no weapons left…but the Ravens over the past four weeks have allowed the third most fantasy points to the QB position. As for McCown the last time he faced the Patriots at home he threw for over 350 yards and two touchdowns.
Elijah McGuire ($3,600) – NYJ
McGuire is filling the pass-catching running back role on the New York Jets. Since returning from his injury, McGuire has owned the most snaps of any Jets’ running back and has run 45 routes which are more than Isaiah Crowell and Trenton Cannon combined. His 11 targets rank third highest on the team over the past two weeks. The matchup is also very good this week against the Patriots who have struggled to cover running back who are pass-catchers. This season the Patriots have allowed the fifth most receiving yards and seventh most receiving targets to the RB position.
Peyton Barber ($3,900) – TB
Considering how Barber got 20 touches last week, he is priced is way too low of a starting running back in a game with a high implied point total. Barber is not losing touches to any of the other Tampa Bay RBs. Barber saw 68% of the snaps in Week 11. The matchup on paper is so-so, as San Francisco gives up the 15th most fantasy points to the RB position. But from a volume standpoint, if you want to go contrarian cheap at RB and fade the Bucs’ passing game, Barber is your guy.
LeSean McCoy ($4,200) – BUF
This price is crazy low. McCoy is going to have super-low ownership of course with the matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to the RB position. But here’s why McCoy needs to be littered across your GPPs. The Jaguars defense on the road allows the 4th most rushing attempts per game (29.2), 132 rushing yards per game, 1.2 rushing touchdowns, and 4.5 yards per attempt. We have seen other RBs put up solid numbers against Jacksonville through the passing game, which is something McCoy plays a large role in. McCoy is third on his team in total passing targets.
Gus Edwards ($4,400) – BAL
The Oakland Raiders in 2018 have allowed the third most rushing attempts to the RB position (29.6). Gus “The Bus” Edwards emerged in Week 11, creating 17-115-1 rushing line alongside Lamar Jackson. The Bengals could not figure out how to stop both Edwards and Jackson so the rushing yards continued to pile on. “Former” starting running back Alex Collins took just seven carries for 18 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens have no investment in Collins and John Harbaugh was talking up his guy from Rutgers post-game. If he is given a similar workload in Week 12, Edwards could have another productive outing against the Raiders. The Raiders are allowing 4.8 yards per carry and the 6th most fantasy points to the RB position. Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed at least 83 rushing yards to opposing starting running backs which is the most in the NFL during that time span. There’s no stopping this runaway school bus.
Kendrick Bourne ($3,900) – SF
Bourne played in over 94% of the offensive snaps in the 49ers’ last game. With Pierre Garcon already downgraded to out and Marquise Goodwin doubtful, Bourne looks to lead the WR room for the 49ers against a Tampa Bay that gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to the WR position. Bourne ran the most routes in Week 10 at the wide receiver position and he has 19 targets over the past three weeks. Tampa Bay has allowed a WR to catch a TD in every single game. 7 receivers have caught a TD vs TB with 5 or fewer targets.
Adam Humphries ($4,000) – TB
Humphries with Jameis Winston has seen an 18.9% target share second highest behind only Mike Evans. Humphries saw just a 10.6% target share with Fitzpatrick under center. The 49ers have also allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers per game this season. Over last four weeks, Humphries has run the 6th most routes and he has seen 35 targets over the last five weeks. 75 receiving yards plus in two Winston starts for Humphries.
Marcell Ateman, Seth Roberts ($3,100, $3,200) – OAK
Since the Raiders no longer have any other wide receivers, Ateman and Roberts become immediate targets because of their dirt-cheap price. Atman led the Raiders in offensive snaps and routes run, while Roberts led the team with seven targets. The matchup is tough versus the Ravens, but if you are just looking for a cheap floor play these should be your targets. Slot receivers have done some damage against the Ravens with Tavon Young. He’s allowed three touchdowns while in slot coverage this season.
D.J. Moore ($4,600) – CAR
Don’t hate on the Funchess. This is what I said in one of my previous articles. Not sure I feel the same anymore with Funchess likely to miss this game. With him out, I think it’s safe to get back on D.J. Moore even if he is chalk. Seattle has allowed the third most receiving yards to the WR position over the last four weeks, sixth most targets, and fifth most receptions. Moore still leads the team in 21 targets over the last four weeks. Seattle over the past four weeks has allowed the fourth-most red zone touches to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed five touchdowns to the WR position in the last four weeks.
Nick Vannett ($2,700) – SEA
TE Streamer of the Week:
• More routes than Dickson
• CAR allowing most fppg to TE
• CAR 30th in DVOA vs TE
• 4rz tg over last 4gms#FantasyFootball
— DBro (@DBro_FFB) November 24, 2018
If you are looking to punt on the TE position look no further than Nick Vannett at $2,700. Super duper cheap and guy that can be easily stacked with Wilson. Also looks like Doug Baldwin might miss this game as well, so that could create more opportunities for Vannett.
Jack Doyle ($4,100) – IND
Doyle has seven targets over the past two weeks compared to just three for Eric Ebron. Again, we are chasing targets and touches especially at the tight end position. Playing in over 80% of the offensive snaps in an offense that heavily favors the tight end position, Doyle represents the “safest” tight end selection in DraftKings this week where you don’t have to spend up to much. The Dolphins allow the most red zone touches and second-most red zone targets to the TE position in 2018. Eric Ebron in GPPs.
Jeff Heuerman ($3,400) – DEN
The Pittsburgh Steelers allow the 6th most targets to the TE position, 7th most targets, 11th most yards, and 8.67 fantasy points per game. Heuerman has run 46 routes over the past two weeks and 21 targets in his last three games (most on the team). Gotta love the cheap tight end.
Cameron Brate ($3,600) – TB
A quarterback switch and perhaps a tight end switch to pair with? O.J. Howard suffered an ankle injury in Week 11, so that creates a great opportunity for Cameron Brate. With Winston also under center, that should be an additional encouragement to target Brate in daily. San Francisco gives up the 12th fewest fantasy points to the TE position, but they have allowed the most red zone touches (11) to the tight end position. He’s defintely someone I prefer in cash games because he is going to be chalky.