Looking for some daily fantasy football knowledge outside Chill, Marry, Kill for Week 11 Keep in mind many players featured in that article can apply to daily fantasy as well.
Here are your best DraftKings values for the Week 11 games. With six teams on bye weeks, we have a smaller main slate (10 games). The best strategy as always with the tight salaries is to get your studs at running back (Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey) and go cheaper at the other positions. So wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends will be heavily featured here.
Quarterbacks – QBs you can get for equal or less than $6,000 in Draftkings
Philip Rivers ($6,000) – LAC
Philip Rivers is my favorite cash quarterback. He is the only quarterback this season to throw for at least 2 passing touchdowns and 200 passing yards in every single game this year. He is at a great price and against that Denver defense that has allowed the six passing touchdowns and 516 yards passing over the past two weeks? Lock me into him in $$$$.
Matthew Stafford ($5,400) – DET
A solid GPP play of the week is Matthew Stafford. He has been playing pretty bad ever since the Lions traded away Golden Tate, and is a player that many people will avoid this week. But there is some reason to buy in against the Carolina Panthers. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed the most passing touchdowns (13), fifth-most passing yards, and third-most completions. Overall 24 fantasy points per game. Stafford has thrown at least two touchdowns at in three straight home games and the Panthers on the road this season have allowed 2.8 passing touchdowns per game. He’s more of GPP play because the Panthers’ pass-rush could create issues (fifth-highest pressure rate). However, Kenny Golladay at $5,800 is easy to stack with Stafford especially if Marvin Jones misses. He has run the most routes (141) over the past three weeks. T.J. Jones maybe?
Eli Manning ($5,200) – NYG
Another great GPP play of the week is Eli Manning. God, I really hate this effin’ guy. But the matchup is one that I think he just has to expose. This is all about the matchup. Tampa Bay gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the QB position. All non-Andy Reid coached quarterbacks have roasted the Buccaneers this season. Now, I know what you are thinking…but Alex Smith sucked last week against them. That is correct, but the difference between Smith and Manning right now is offensive weapons surrounding them. Smith has nobody and Manning has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a great day, along with Saquon Barkley. If Manning can just get the ball to his playmakers they will do all the work, and you with Manning as your fantasy quarterback will reap all the rewards. He should also have a ton of time to throw as well. Via Pro Football Focus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the worst graded pass rush in the NFL through the first 10 weeks. BELIEVE IN ELI. For just $5,200 he can show you the world to so many different lineup combinations. But GPPs, please. For a similarly priced player in cash see Dak Prescott.
Josh Rosen ($4,800) – ARI
The Oakland Raiders are not only a mess, but they allow the 8th most fantasy points to the QB position. Josh Rosen struggled in Week 10 because the Chiefs were up to his ass. That will not be the case when the Raiders come to Arizona. Over the past two weeks, the Raiders have only brought pressure on just over 27% of the dropbacks. It’s funny because via Matt Schneidman on Twitter tweeted “Cardinals HC Steve Wilks just said on a conference call he’s impressed with the Raiders’ ability to get after the quarterback.” He must have gotten ahold of those JaMarcus Russell blank film tapes.
This season as a whole, the Raiders have only gotten pressure on just 9.6% of the snaps third worst in the NFL. With the new offense clicking more than earlier in the year, I like Rosen’s chances to get the ball out to his playmakers in Week 11. Especially if they keep Rosen clean. All six of Rosen’s touchdowns have come from clean pockets this season. The Raiders allow the fourth most passing touchdowns in road games (2.4) per game and only one quarterback they have faced all year as thrown for less than two touchdowns. There’s also a high probability that the Raiders quit in this game, so that makes Arizona players very enticing across all formats.
Dion Lewis ($4,800) – TEN
He was the chalk of the Week 1o so I expect his ownership to be down. He wasn’t bad last week but did not #Kaboom like most owners might have wanted. If you want to pay up at wide receiver then you best grab your guy Dion Lewis. Before last week Lewis scored more than 20 fantasy points in back to back games. He led the Titans’ in touches over Derrick Henry in Week 10, but Henry got the goalline scores. The Colts defense has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, third-most targets, and third-most receptions to the RB position in 2018. With Lewis dominating the Titans’ backfield in volume, he’s the cheap chalk play at RB.
Mark Ingram ($4,700) – NO
He plays running back on arguably the best offense in the NFL. At $4,700 what you do with him is stack him with Kamara in cash games, ensuring you will get all goalline touches for the Saints. @Fantasy_Mansion said it best when he recommended this strategy and I absolutely love it. The Saints could also find themselves up big in this game as a heavy home favorite, which could lead to more snaps for Ingram as the coaches decide to rest Kamara slightly. The Eagles represent a tough matchup in the run game, but the Saints’ offense is just too good to not have a piece of.
Alex Collins ($4,400) – BAL
Just how bad are the Cincinnati Bengals? Well, over the last our weeks they have allowed the most fantasy points to the running back position, by an extremely large margin. In standard scoring, it’s over 36 fantasy points per game to the RB position. Collins is a very touchdown dependent running back and the Bengals have allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season. Collins’ best games this season have come in games where he has seen at least 12 carries. He has averaged 14 fantasy points in those games. Nine running backs that have faced the Bengals this season have compiled 12 carries.
Theo Riddick ($4,000) – DET
With the Lions doing the best they can to replace Golden Tate, they are trying to get their running backs more involved in the passing game. Over the past two weeks, Theo Riddick has run the second most routes at the running back position (62) just four behind Todd Gurley. Kerryon Johnson during that timespan has 46 routes run for eighth most in the NFL over that time span. With Marvin Jones Jr. now dealing with a knee injury I expect the Lions’ to lean even more on Riddick in the passing game along with Johnson. However, the Panthers have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to the RB position. Specifically, to pass-catching backs, the Panthers have only allowed more than 4 receptions to an RB once this season. They also have not allowed more than one running back to achieve more than 25 yards receiving this season. More like a cash play at running back because of the PPR format of DraftKings.
Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000) – NO
This screams Ted Ginn game. Tre’Quan Smith has taken over that role and traditionally that role has been heavily used in home games. From 2017-2018, Ted Ginn averaged 16.32 fantasy points in home games with a 50+ under/over, and a featured -8 point spread. Smith already flashed this ability in an earlier game against Washington this season and it’s just a matter of time till the ball comes his way. He is still playing an extremely high snap percentage and again is a cheap part of one of the highest projected scoring games of the week. Did I also mention the entire Eagles’ secondary is on IR?
Dede Westbrook ($4,700) – NYJ
Since Week 5, no Jaguars wide receiver has run more routes than Dede Westbrook. Westbrook also dominates the Jaguars in red zone opportunities from the wide receiver position with 12.70% total red zone market share. I think Westbrook who is coming off a ten target game where he underperformed with just five catches for 30 yards could smash against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Westbrook is in the slot over 90% of the time, so that means he will avoid going up against Joe Haden who has been stout since returning for the Steelers. Jarvis Landry had 12 targets against the Steelers in Week 8, and Tyler Boyd had nine targets and two touchdowns.
D.J. Moore ($4,200) – CAR
Most people are on the Detroit Lions for their bad run defense, but their pass defense has been trending downward recently. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the WR position and the seventh-most to the QB position. Over the past two weeks, Moore has run just three fewer routes than Devin Funchess and actually played in more snaps than Funchess. Over the past three weeks, Moore has also out-targeted Funchess. The Lions have also allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to the WR and a total of eight touchdowns to the WR position. Right now the Lions’ secondary is a mess, and Moore is going to see a lot of Teez Tabor in the slot and Nevin Lawson on the outside. Teez Tabor is Pro Football Focus’s worst graded cornerback playing this week. He’s allowing 2.92 yards per route covered with an 83% catch rate. Also, a 158.3 passer rating when he is on the field. Lawson is not much better. In coverage this season he’s allowed four passing touchdowns.
Evan Engram ($4,100) – NYG
Eight different tight ends have over 50 yards and five have gone over 70 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Engram has 14 targets over the past two games. Tampa Bay gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the TE position. On average the Buccaneers are allowing at least eight targets per game to the tight end position. In games where Engram has had at least eight targets, he has averaged at least 16.69 fantasy points per game. With at least six targets he has averaged at least 14 fantasy points.
James O’Shaughnessy ($2,600) – JAX
The Pittsburgh Steelers this season have allowed the third most targets, third most receptions, to the TE position over the entire season. He played on 69% of the snaps and ran 23 routes in Week 10. He also was tied for the second most targets (6) in Week 10. For the cheapest option at TE, O’Shaughnessy is a great value. 4 receptions for 40 yards gets him value and if scores? You are playing with house money.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,900) – ARI
Since Week 8 of the NFL seas0n when the offensive coordinator change happened Seals-Jones has run 35.5 routes per game, the second most for any tight end over that time span. He is getting more integrated into an offense that is improving so that bodes very well for his fantasy projection. And against Oakland that gives up the 5th most fantasy points to the TE position, you could do much worse than RSJ in Week 11. The Raiders have allowed 11.9 yards per target this season, over 80% completion and a touchdown every 7.8 targets to the tight end position. Targets plus the Raiders make a happy RSJ. The Raiders probably won’t even come out after halftime anyway so RSJ is basically a lock to EXPLODE.