Week 10 Lines that Don’t Make Sense

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Hosted by
Austin Barach

Today is going to get weird. For the first time since 2011 for a non-week 17 slate, we will have six games that start in the 4:05-4:25 pm window. (What’s up, The Masters, in November?) Between Josh Allen and Kyler Murray squaring off in the desert, to Russell Wilson slinging it around on the fast turf in Los Angeles, to a Herbert-Tua matchup in Miami, chaos seems inevitable for around the 7-7:30 PM time today. Two witching hours with Scott Hansen! So, with that said, here are three Week 10 lines that don’t make sense to me

Last Week’s record: 1-2

Overall record: 6-3

Texans @ Browns (-4)

Betting on Baker Mayfield is something that I don’t think should be a regular practice. I think today would be a good opportunity to back him and the Browns, though. When Cleveland has looked good this season, it’s been through their running game, and with star running back Nick Chubb and impressive guard Wyatt Teller both returning today after multiple-week injuries, their ground game identity should return in a big way. Teller, by the way, is PFF’s number one graded guard this season. Plus, the Texans have one of the worst run defenses in the league.

I recognize that it’ll be a Duke Johnson revenge game, but with Browns coming off of their bye after putting up just six points at home to the Raiders, I expect them to put up at least 27 points today on the backs of their one-two punch in Chubb and Hunt.

Nick Chubb

Ravens @ Patriots (+7)

Call me a homer, call me biased, call me falling into some wishful thinking. Whatever. But Belichick is a touchdown underdog at home on a Primetime game? Huh? I think that the Pats keep this game close and perhaps even win it. It has vintage Pats-Ravens, Belichick-Harbough vibes. It’s going to be rainy and windy in Foxboro. As a Pats fan, this is the game that either saves the season or let’s us know that it’s officially just not going to happen this year. So what does this mean for the game? The kitchen sink.

I expect end arounds, screen passes to Damiere Byrd and Rex Burkhead, and crossing action with Jacobi Meyers. There are several key guys for the Pats who have the questionable tag at the moment, but the Ravens will definitely be without Calais Campbell and will probably be without Jimmy Smith, so it should be easier to move the ball against that defense. The other wrinkle is that Lamar Jackson said earlier this week that opposing defenses have been calling the Ravens’ plays pre-snap, which tells me that Belichick will have his guys super prepared to defend the Ravens offense, (unlike how underprepared they looked against Joe freaking Flacco for the first three quarters on Monday) which has taken a huge step back compared to last season. This pick could massively backfire on me, but regardless, let’s go Pats!

Vikings @ Bears (+3)

I don’t feel great about this, because, well, it’s the Bears, who have a fantastically depressing offense, and have lost three consecutive games, while the Vikings have won two straight behind two wild Dalvin Cook games. So the trends point to the Vikings here. After all, it’s incredible that the Bears are home underdogs to a 3-5 team after being the 1-seed in the NFC for a single day a few weeks ago. But my reasoning to backing the Bears in this situation basically boils down to this: They can’t absolutely suck for a 4th straight week, especially in a home game, and they’re playing Kirk Cousins in a non-1 PM Sunday game; better yet, a Primetime game, and the Bears defense is good.

I think the score will be like 13-0 or 13-3 with around five minutes left in the first half and Kirk Cousins will be looking frustrated after being knocked off his rhythm yet again by Khalil Mack. Simply because of Cousins, this line should be moved to Vikings -2.

Sep 5, 2019; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears outside linebacker Khalil Mack (52) reacts after making a tackle against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Note:

I normally have at least one late afternoon game in here but all six of today’s late afternoon games seem to have solid lines and with six of them going on, I think it’ll get weird. I like the Rams -2.5 off of a bye, but Russell Wilson makes me scared. The Chargers at +1.5 is interesting with Van Noy out for the Dolphins and the Dolphins riding high, but it’s the Chargers. Regardless, there are still Week 10 lines to take advantage of.

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Episode 69