How did I do in Week 9 with last week’s article? I had my fair share of misses, but we have short-term memories here at Crow Worthy. So how did you kill, marry and chill in fantasy football for Week 10? Well here’s a look at how I do it.
As a reminder, kill players are going to be players that I am fading. Marry are the players that are locked and loaded. And lastly, chill are those oh so sexy sleepers that we are just tryna to Netflix and Chill with. So who’s ready for some Kill, Marry, and Chill? For Chill, I will also take on the challenge of only chilling with players that have a start percentage with less than 50%.
Quarterback – Andy Dalton – CIN
I know what you are thinking. But they are playing the Saints?? The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to the QB position. However, this week is a total fade on the Red Rifle. My concerns start with no A.J Green. Dalton in his career without Green averages just 1.0 passing touchdown per game. Additionally, the Saints have a fierce pass rush that has the seventh highest pressure rate, and sixth highest sack conversion rate of teams playing this week. Additionally, Dalton has only scored more than 20 fantasy points three times this season. In those three games, A.J. Green compiled four of his five passing touchdowns. In games where A.J. Green does not catch a touchdown (which won’t happen Sunday), Dalton averages less than 17 fantasy points per game and owns a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. During Weeks 5-7, where Dalton averaged 13.33 fantasy points, he was seeing pressure on 30% of his dropbacks. Jared Goff 32.6%, Cousins 48.9%, Flacco 35% were the last three quarterbacks that faced the Saints that all saw 30% plus pressure on their dropbacks.
Running Back – Duke Johnson Jr. – CLE
The scoop on Duke Johnson Jr is that he might be fool’s gold for fantasy owners in Week 10. Johnson was featured in my Pick Up Articles for Week 10, and initially, it seemed like everything was great. Duke Johnson was getting more involved and the Falcons are the worst defense against pass-catching running backs in 2018. But for the fans, I wanted to do more digging. The Falcons numbers are really inflated from the likes of Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley who combined for 45 targets in three games! Outside of those players, the Falcons have allowed 38 targets in their five other games (7.6) targets per game. Prior to Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, Johnson in 57 career games, had nine or more targets twice. Comes to no surprise that in those games Johnson scored 4 of his 12 career touchdowns.
In Week 9, Johnson also did not see any uptick in snaps played as he was under 50% with Nick Chubb handling the other 50%. He did run 26 passing routes and did see two red zone opportunities in which he converted into two scores. However, touchdowns are more likely going to be scored by Chubb who have 11 red zone opportunities over the past three weeks versus just three for Johnson. Most of Johnson’s routes came out of the backfield on third downs, aside from his second touchdown where Chubb lined up in the slot and was obviously was the number one read on the play. My last point here brings me to the target market share which in Cleveland is very volatile. In Week 9, Landry had a season-low in targets (7). David Njoku and Antonio Callaway both had just five when they have seen up to at least ten targets on two separate occasions. I fully expect regression from Johnson in Week 10 based on his target market share and his impending touchdown regression. Sure there’s a chance if Duke gets 7 or more targets, but considering he’s only done it once all season, I feel like you might be chasing production with Duke Johnson after one game. Over the course of Baker Mayfield’s start to his career outside of Landry, he has often heavily targeted specific players, to then totally fade them the following week.
Wide Receiver – Marvin Jones Jr. – DET
Whaddup Marvin Jones. Say hello to my bench. Over the past two weeks, the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. I understand that the Bears played the Jets and Bills, but the Bears know how to pressure the quarterback into making poor decisions. 39% pressure created on dropbacks to opposing quarterbacks, facing the Lions who allowed 46.9% of pressure on dropbacks in Week 9 to go along with 10 sacks. And did I mention it looks like Khalil Mack is going to be back? Jones’ game is to get downfield with big plays. Jones leads the Lions in total air yards and an average depth of the target. I am not so sure Stafford will have the time to get the ball downfield to Jones. Jones has also been inconsistent this season. He’s only scored double-digit fantasy points in games that he has caught touchdowns in. The Bears have only allowed seven passing touchdowns to receivers this year and just three touchdowns over the past three weeks.
Quarterback – Andrew Luck – IND
Via Michael Fabiano on NFL.com over the last four weeks, Jacksonville’s defense has surrendered an average of more than 21 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks eight most during that time span. Luck targets his tight ends and running backs more than his receivers, especially in the red zone (35 red zone targets). That should get Luck away from Jalen Ramsey, and the Jaguars should also be playing without cornerback A.J. Bouye. T.Y Hilton should also produce as well, as his history versus Jacksonville suggests so. In his last three homes, games against the Jaguars Hilton has averaged over 11 targets and has gone over 95 yards receiving twice. Jacksonville’s defense is good, but not nearly as good as it was last year. Over the last three games, the Jags have allowed the seventh most touchdowns per game (2).
Running Back – Marlon Mack – IND
Another Colts player that I like a lot Mack should see a lot of opportunities at home against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow the fourth most rushing attempts (30.8) per game on the road this season and the seventh most rushing touchdowns (1.2) on the road. Mack has a 33.33% market share of red zone opportunities which is highest on the Colts. Mack in his last three games has averaged over 100 yards rushing and has scored three times. The Colts’ offensive line as also been playing great. 1.93 yards before contact are created for their ball carries. Believe in the Mack.
Wide Receiver – David Moore – SEA
Marcus Peters Anyone? He has been downright shit this year at the cornerback position and will be covering David Moore a ton on Sunday. For some reason a lot of analysts have Tyler Lockett facing Peters, but Moore lines up the majority of the time on the left outside (61%) while Peters lines up as the right corner (36%) of the time. Moore also had two touchdowns over Peters back in their first matchup in Week 5.
Tight End – David Njoku – CLE
The Atlanta Falcons allowed over 90 yards receiving to the tight end position last week, and have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to the TE position this season. Outside the donut performance Njoku had in Week 8, he has been very consistent. He has had at least 5 targets in all but one other game this season, and at least 50 yards receiving in five straight games. With the Browns most likely chasing points look for Njoku is an upside tight end play that still has a steady 7 point fantasy floor.
Running Back – Theo Riddick – DET
The Chicago Bears defense over the past four weeks has allowed the third most receptions, third most targets, and two receiving touchdowns to the running back position. Theo Riddick returned from injury in Week 9 and ran a team-high 3o routes. T.J. Jones dominated the routes from the slot with 85% of snaps there, but Riddick did get some work their as well (17.2%). Riddick led the Lions in targets (8) and has averaged 6.3 targets per game this season. I fully expect his target share to increase with the 26% target market share absent from Golden Tate. Riddick played in 55.71% of the snaps which was the exact same as Kerryon Johnson. With the fierce pass-rush of the Chicago Bears looming, Matthew Stafford could be looking for Riddick very often. Also just $3800 on DraftKings 😁.
Wide Receiver – Donte Moncrief – JAX
Indianapolis gives up the 10th fewest fantasy points to the WR position. However, with 35 targets in the last four games, Moncrief can produce in Week 1o. I do not expect QB Blake Bortles to see a lot of pressure in this game, which leads me to believe this will be a Moncrief game. In games against the Patriots, Jets, and Texans, the Bortles/Moncrief combination was very productive. Moncrief had at least 13 fantasy points in those games, and with Bortles keeping a clean pocket. His accuracy on deep throws was also excellent at 82.8%. Moncrief will also be drawing coverage from Nate Hairston who has allowed a 82% catch rate.
Tight End – Jonnu Smith – TEN
New England gives up the 6th most fantasy points to the TE position making Smith a very interesting option at the position. However, Smith is coming off his best game of the season totaling 33 yards on two receptions with a touchdown score. Now Smith has not seen many targets this year, but the Patriots defensive matchup might change that. The Patriots are not good at covering the tight end position and have allowed the most targets, most receptions, and most yards to the position over the last four weeks. I think Mariota is a great streaming option considering based on PFF ratings the Patriots rank fifth worst in pressure rate percentage (9.7%) of teams playing in Week 10.