The sick pix have returned for the upcoming NFL season. I am so excited to give out some picks for week 1, so let’s get into it.
Eagles vs Falcons
Against this weak Atlanta defense in week 1, all signs point to Jalen Hurts showing us flashes from his 2019 season at OU. Atlanta gave up the most passing yards per game in the entire league last year at 293.6. So, with that said, despite the Eagles really not letting Hurts get any work in during the preseason besides 7 passes in the first game, I love Hurts over 240.5. He only went over in 2 of his 5 games played, but he hit it easily every time he threw the ball more then 30 times. If you are riding his over, you should also play his over completions at 19.5 because if he hits one prop, he hits the other as well.
Despite losing Julio, I still like Matt Ryan under 288.5 in week 1. It’s now the Pitts and Ridley show, and both guys are capable of a big play on every snap. He only went over 5 times last year and Philly is tough against the pass so he will have his work cut out for him.
For Touchdown scorers, I like Goedert, Hurts, Sanders, Ridley, and Mike Davis in week 1. I see this game going over as Matt Ryan still has some dynamic pass catchers around him and their defense is swiss cheese. The Eagles should be able to drive down the field whenever they want.
Miles Sanders over 66.5 is another line I like. for week 1 He hit that in 6 of 12 games played last year with exactly 66 in another game. While Atlanta was a top 7 team against the rush last year, they still gave up 100 ypg at home on the ground. Mike Davis over 44.5 is another rushing prop, as he is the lead back and will see the ball a lot. He went over in 9 of 14 games and is facing a team that was 22nd in the league against the run last year.
Calvin Ridley over 6.5 catches at +112 seems like great value. He went over 6 times last year, but he is now the true number one receiver and should see double digit targets every week. Ridley caught 90 of 143 targets last year and I just love the odds on 6.5. Another receiver I like is Devonta Smith, as Jalen should target his team’s rookie playmaker early and often. Over 41.5 receiving yards against a secondary like this seems really solid. Also, over 3.5 catches should like a lock.
Jets vs Panthers
I am really looking forward to this week 1 game, as I think it should be pretty exciting. Sam Darnold hosts his former team with another familiar former Jet, Robby Anderson. The Jets defense struggled at times in the preseason against second and third stringers, especially with Carl Lawson out, meaning that the young inexperienced corners will get tested early and often. I like the over for points at 45.5 and would be comfortable up to over 50.
Some first touchdown options I like are Robby Anderson and Corey Davis. As how much more Jets would it be for Darnold to hit Robby Anderson on a deep ball first play of the game for + 900. Also, Davis will be targeted frequently by the rookie Wilson and for +1000, if the Jets can drive first is worth a sprinkle. For anytime scorers, McCaffery at -260 is not very valuable, so I’m rolling with Robby, Davis, Kroft, and Jets defense. Sam Darnold has always had a turnover problem, has he fixed it? Probably not, and one of these rookies will take one back.
Darnold’s passing prop is set pretty high at 250.5, but I still like the over. I also like Zach Wilson’s over at 231.5. I expect Wilson to be letting it fly all day, so 231.5 against a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the pass should be solid.
For rushing, I like Michael Carter over 18.5 rushing yards, as the rookie should see some carries. It’s tough to tell how many touches Coleman will get as Ty Johnson looked good in the preseason and could easily see the ball the most. I also love Darnold over 8.5 rushing yards as even without Lawson, the Jet’s front should still get some pressure on him. I’m going to stay away from McCaffery because the Jet’s line is still very solid against the run and Mosley is back and healthy.
McCaffery over 44.5 receiving yards could be a solid play, as the rookie linebackers will find themselves in coverage with him. But I am hammering Robby Anderson over 4.5 catches and 50.5 yards. 50.5 yards is something Robby can pass on one play, especially having the most chemistry on the team with Sam. Corey Davis over 4.5 catches is also a great line, as he was getting a lot of targets from Wilson in the preseason and is without question the team’s number one receiver.
Steelers vs Bills
This week 1 matchup should be a really solid one. The Bills are looking to prove the hype is real and that they are real contenders, while Big Ben is trying to turn back the clock for one more run.
My two favorites for first touchdown are Diggs and Pat Friermuth. It really depends who gets into the redzone first, but if the Steelers do, they’ll 100% be looking for the rookie tight end who is good inside the 20. Friermuth caught 16 touchdowns while at Penn State and should quickly establish himself for Pitt against a Bills team that struggled against tight ends last year. Diggs is as consistent as they come, and should be in for a huge day. I also like Najee and Diontae Johnson for anytime touchdowns.
I love Josh Allen over 279.5 passing yards, as the recently paid quarterback should look to start off his hopeful MVP caliber season on the right foot. I don’t really want to touch Bens prop, as I want to see how he plays week one before really judging him. Najee Harris over 58.5 should be a solid play as he should get a bunch of touches. Diggs should have a huge game, so I love him over 7.5 catches for +112 and over 88.5 yards for -112. I also like Diontae Johnson over 5.5 catches for +102.
Jaguars vs Texans
This is a great first week matchup for Trevor Lawrence. The Texans gave up the tenth most passing yards per game overall. They also gave up over 30 more yards passing per game at home then on the road so Lawrence should thrive.
The Texans gave up the most rushing yards per game last year so James Robinson should have a great day. Anytime touchdown should be great play. I love Robinson for 2 touchdowns at +650. Marvin Jones is another touchdown scorer I like at +130.
There are not many props worth touching in this game because it will probably be pretty ugly, but Trevor Lawrence over 247.5 should be nice. Tyrod Taylor over 19.5 rushing yards seems like another solid play as Tyrod should run it a few times. James Robinson over 68.5 is a great play, and I would even sprinkle up to maybe even 100. With Etienne out for the year, Robinson is the number one back without much competition, and against a defense like this, he should see a large number of carries.
Titans vs Cardinals
Two high powered offenses collide in what should be a great week one matchup. The Cards were not great against the run last year (12th worst), giving up 125.5 yards per game. So even with some improvement, it’s still a great matchup for Henry.
I love Derrick Henry first touchdown at +470, as he should be running the ball right through this Cardinal’s defense. I also like Hopkins and Aj Brown both to score as with Henry and Julio on the field, Brown should have some great matchups. Tennessee gave up almost 290 passing yards per game last year, so Hopkins should thrive.
Kyler Murray over 261.5 passing yards should be solid as the Cards will need to score to beat Tennessee. I also like Derrick Henry over 96.5 rushing yards as he should have a huge game against a team that struggled against the run last season. Rondale Moore over 2.5 catches should be solid with the Hopkins and AJ Green on the field, Moore should see some targets.
Long shot dart tosses (sprinkle, don’t drop the bag)
Dallas Goedert first touchdown +1400 (love the odds on the new Te1)
Robby Anderson first touchdown +900
Stefon Diggs first touchdown +650
James Robinson 100+ rushing yards +350
Derrick Henry first touchdown +470
.5 unit plays
Jets and Panthers both to score 2 touchdowns in each half +4000
Pat Friermouth anytime touchdown +400
Dallas Goedert 50+ receiving yards and win +450
Eagles +3 +102
Mike Davis over 44.5 rushing yards
Sam Darnold over 8.5 rushing yards
James Robinson two touchdowns +650
Trevor Lawrence over 247.5 passing yards -113
James Robinson over 68.5 rushing yards -113
DeAndre Hopkins over 7.5 catches +112
JD McKissic over 13.5 rushing -110
Austin Eckler over 78.5 rush + receiving yards -113
1 unit plays
Stefon Diggs over 88.5 receiving yards -114
Jalen Hurts 300+ passing yards and win +870
Calvin Ridley over 6.5 catches +112
Devonta Smith over 3.5 catches
Robby Anderson over 50.5 receiving yards -114
Corey Davis over 4.5 catches -114