Ryan’s NBA Sick Pix: 4-11

by Ryan PesciottaApril 13, 2021

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Ryan Pesciotta

Below are my NBA sick pix for April 11th. But first, let’s see how we did in my last gambling forecast.

Quick Recap:

While I liked the Cavs last night, that game made that a huge regret. The Raptors were down 3 starters and were led by Gary Trent going crazy. I was also very wrong about Gary Trent Jr, who dropped a career high 44 points on 17-19 shooting. I liked Sexton 25+ in my breakdown, as well as OG under rebounds, the over 216.5, and Cavs over 108.5, all of which hit. Garland also went over 5.5 assists, ending this game’s official picks 4-2 for this game.

Moving to the Nets game, we missed on the Nets bad, but hit the over. LaMarcus Aldridge didn’t do anything in the fourth, ending at 12 points and just missing his over, while Drummond went way over. Joe Harris was bad, only scoring 6 points bringing the overall picks record to 3-3 in this game.

We got lucky in the Sixers game. Ben Simmons under was a sweat, but he only scored one point in the second half and cashed that. With all the late scratches, only one of the official plays wasn’t voided, so by adding Seth Curry’s prop pick from the breakdown, we hit both picks in this game.

For the Jazz game, we hit their spread, but missed on Mitchell and Fox rebounds by 1 each. In the breakdown, I mentioned Conley over and 20+ and both hit, which is clutch. We missed Lillard 35+ and win, but hit his and CJ’s overs on points to go 2-1 in this game, as well as Kanter’s rebounds from the breakdown. Steph went off late going just over his points total, but hit his rebounds and assists prop.

We split the Suns-Wizards game by half of a point by Crowder and by getting Russ’ rebounds and assists. From the breakdown, we also got a Russ triple double, Ayton under and Russ under points. We finish the day up and go 16-10!

Nets-Timberwolves

Kyrie is out for personal reasons while LaMarcus Aldridge is out with an illness. I like under 234 because Towns is a little banged up and KD will be the only one playing from the Net’s big three. Towns is day-to-day but if he plays, he is going to have a huge game. Even if Aldridge was playing, he couldn’t check Towns in the post. I like the spread and total double with Minnesota +8.5 and under 234 and +200.

Clippers-Pacers

Kawhi is out again as well as Beverly and Ibaka, which could make this game a lot closer then expected. Myles Turner is also out for the Pacers, but they should be able to pick up the slack. I like Paul George over 26.5 as he’s been on a very hot stretch lately. With the injuries the team is facing, he will need to have another night of 30+.

I like Marcus Morris over 15.5 and 3+ made threes, as he should get more minutes in place of Kawhi again. Zubac under 11.5 looks good, as he is not really a threat to score, averaging only 8 points per game as well as under 9.5 rebounds. I like Sabonis to have a big all-around game, I like his over 5.5 assists and over 11.5 rebounds, and these are my favorite plays of the day. In his only matchup against the Clippers, he grabbed 14 rebounds and has 15 in each of his last two games played. So, give me 14+ at +235 and run with it. I also like Sabonis over 17.5 as he’s capable of hitting 20+ nightly.

Brogdon was huge in their victory over Memphis and I expect him to have another solid game. While he struggled in their first matchup, Beverly is out this time, making his life exponentially easier. I’m comfortable with Brogdon 20+ every night, as Sabonis passes the ball so well and this team with LeVert is dangerous. LeVert will probably be guarded by PG, so I like the other guys to have bigger games. Clippers with their first road test in a minute, so I like the Pacers +3 and over 232, as both teams have been putting up big time points.

Hawks-Raptors

Gary Trent Jr. has been shooting the ball at an insane rate over the past two games. After his career night two games ago, he struggled early against the Knicks. He quickly turned it on and ended with 23 on 52% shooting, though. I like the Hawks moneyline. The Raptors have played two games in the last three days and are coming off such a grind of a game versus the Knicks. Props are not posted for this game, sadly. But if they do get posted, I like Trent for between 20-22 points. The volume is there, but I probably wouldn’t take him much higher, as after his recent stretch, he’s due for a stinker.

The battle down low should be fun to watch between Boucher and Capella. Boucher has been so hit or miss, dropping 38 points, then following that up with 9 the next time out. I like him for at least 15 tonight and could be comfortable taking him at 20 if the odds are enticing. Over 9.5 rebounds for Boucher is another play that I like, as that’s his average in 2 matchups versus Atlanta. Give me Trae Young 30+ again tonight, as this is a great matchup for him to take advantage of. Kyle Lowry is out and I like Trae to take advantage of the bench tonight.

Siakam just has not been the same player as he was last year, despite his numbers still being solid, he just makes some head scratching decisions out on the court. His blatant travel last game cost them the win and he only scored 16 points. I’m riding with his under points whenever they decide to drop the lines, if they end up dropping them.

Lakers-Hornets

The Lakers did not play well against the Knicks and on a normal day, I would fade them after a performance like that. But with Scary Terry doubtful and with PJ Washington out, I give them the edge. If props get added, Drummond over on points and rebounds should be easy money. He is a monster and nobody can matchup with him.

Jazz-Thunder

The Jazz have been great this year, but coming off a heartbreaking loss last night, it is time to bounce back. I hate the spread in this game being -17, as Clarkson is out and Conley is banged up and not 100%. The Thunders injury list is very long today, giving the -17 a little bit of life, but I don’t trust it on a back-to-back without two key contributors.

Jazz win for sure, but that’s not worth a -3500 moneyline. Thunder have only covered +17 in one of their last 5 games, but it still scares me a little with who the Jazz are missing. Lou Dort should have a good game, and for the odds, I like him to hit 3 threes (+200) and to score 20+ (+410). Darius Bazley probably stays under his points, but I love that his over on rebounds has been up recently. He has hit 10 in three of 5 and 9 in the other so I love 6.5. I like Maledon under 13.5, as he is such a streaky scorer.

Donovan Mitchell is on an insane scoring streak and will probably carry the load again tonight. His points are set at 29.5, and after back-to-back 42 point games, I lean towards his under as he is due to drop back to reality. I love his assists over 5.5 though for +100, as he’s had 6 and 4 in his last two, while dropping 42 points, so if the shots not falling early, he becomes a facilitator for the rest of the shooters. I like Rudy tonight as I think he could be a real matchup nightmare for this young Thunder team. His points are set at 15.5 and he’s only hit that in two of his last five, so it’s a tough call.

Blazers-Celtics

This game should be very highly competitive, with both teams needing to come out victorious. With the Blazers sitting a game and a half behind the Lakers, they could make their push for the 5 seed. Boston had a really rough patch earlier and are currently sitting in the 7 seed and only two games above .500. The Celtics absolutely dominated the Nuggets down the stretch, ending the game on a 31-8 run. The Blazers struggled against the Heat, and Dame didn’t have a great game. I give the edge to Boston as they are playing much better basketball of late and are making a run up the standings.

Kemba is my least favorite player in the NBA to bet on, but I love his matchup tonight and the over on 18.5 points. Damion Lillard is more than capable of dropping 40+ any night, but he has not really been scoring lately. I’m leaning towards his under 25.5, as he’s only gone over in three of his last 11 games. I like Tatum to also have a nice night, and over 25.5 points seems like the play. Tatum over 7.5 rebounds is also a solid choice, as he’s hit 10 in three straight games.

I like CJ to have a bounce back game after shooting very poorly in their last game, but still lean to the under 22.5 for him, as he has not been hitting that number very consistently. Norman Powell is my favorite player tonight on the Blazers, due to having had three matchups this season against Boston. He is very familiar with the Celtics and I like him to be the hot hand tonight.

Heat-Suns

This game should be the best one of the night. The Suns have been so good this season and I like them to come out victorious. This Heat team is so talented and play so well together that this game should go down to the wire. I like Booker under 26.5 points as he’s missed it in two of the last three and will be the center of attention to a very solid defensive team. I like Jimmy under 21.5 points as well, as I think tonight’s effort is spread around with multiple guys having big nights.

Bam over 17.5 looks good tonight, as he hit 22 last game, and has gone over 17.5 in four of his last 5. Tyler Herro has been playing very well off the bench and I like his over 14.5 points. I like him a lot more to score 14 then 15, however. I love Kendrick Nunn tonight as he was insane the last time they played the Suns dropping 25 points. He has hit his 11.5 in 3 of his last 5 so let’s ride with the guy with the best matchup. I love Chris Paul double-double tonight, as he has been dropping dimes constantly the last few games. I love Deandre Ayton over 14.5 points tonight, as he has been hitting that easily.