Results may vary, but where is the fun if there’s no risk? Read and find out how to rub your far superior NFL week 5 betting picks in your friend’s face. Colby Cummings, host of “The Football Discussion” podcast has you covered.
Weekly Betting Tip: Strength In Numbers
You’re not a numbers nerd, and you aren’t going to spend hours researching these NFL teams. Don’t worry, because I have you covered. Game Pass, data analytics, and all that nerdy stuff. I’ve done the research for you. Personally, I like to use a lot of different metrics when evaluating teams. Not to say the age old “eye test” is outdated, but data offers a scientific look at things. Unbiased data is a great tool to help you gauge teams. As the NFL season grows older we have more data to analyze teams. No single measure is gospel, but collectively they paint a better picture than what your eyes can. It’s time to listen to the nerds, and put these numbers to use and win week 5 in the NFL with our betting picks.
Week 5 Picks
Cardinals @ Jets Under 47
For all the hype Arizona’s offense has received, much like their QB Kyler Murray, they’re coming up a little short. They rank 25th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. There’s reason to believe the Jets can slow them down. I promise I am not on drugs when i assure you the Jets are capable of doing something good. They rank 10th in DVOA. Additionally they are 12th in pass rush, and 3rd in stopping the run according to ESPN Analytics. Unfortunately for the Jets, and their fans, Adam Gase is still the head coach (for now), and that gives us reason to be pessimistic about the offense. They rank 28th in DVOA, 25th in run blocking, and 29th in pass blocking. The offense couldn’t score on your nephew’s Pop-Warner team. These teams are also a combined 3-5 on hitting the over in 2020 according to Team Rankings. Everyone in the NFL is scoring, but these two teams didn’t get invited to the party. An overvalued Arizona offense and undervalued New York Jets defense gives us value in this under.
Rams -7.5 @ Washington
Laying points on the road? Get ready to be a little uncomfortable. It wouldn’t be the first time someone was uncomfortable in Washington. Kyle Allen will start at QB for Washington. The wheels came off last year with 16 INTs in 13 games in 2019. He’ll be playing in an offense that ranks 29th in DVOA with the 27th ranked pass blocking line. Aaron Donald might catch an assault charge on Sunday. Washington ranks 27th in pass rush, and Rams QB Jared Goff performs well in clean pockets without pressure. So what if he’s a system QB, the system is working right now, and its time to cash in on it. This Ram’s offense has bounced back from last year as they rank 2nd in DVOA, 11th in pass blocking, and 5th in run blocking. Expect them to dominate all game long while Washington head coach Ron Rivera says he is in “evaluation” mode and doesn’t seem hellbent on being competitive in 2020. Winning is overrated in the NFL anyways, and Washington has been way ahead of the curve on that one for years. Even above the key number of 7 take the Rams to cover.
Seahawks -7 @ Vikings
Kirk Cousins in prime time? I’m already filling up my Amazon shopping cart with things I don’t actually need to buy with these winnings. Two spread picks at/above the key number of 7, while traveling no less? Didn’t I tell you to get comfortable being uncomfortable? Dig a little deeper and put yourself at ease. The Vikings may have two WRs playing well in Thielen and Jefferson, but QB Kirk Cousins has struggled all year long behind the 24th ranked pass blocking line. He will be facing the 9th ranked pass rush. Maybe the Vikings will rely on Dalvin Cook, behind the 31st ranked run blocking line facing the 11th ranked run defense. That should help the 1-3 Vikings. The Seahawks offenses led by Russell Wilson ranks 5th in DVOA and 6th in run blocking vs a Vikings defense ranked dead last (32nd) in stopping the run. Oh, and Seattle is 4-0 ATS. Kirk Cousins better spend some extra time at church before this one, because he’s going to need a miracle. Take Seattle minus the points.
6-Point Teaser at +150 Odds
Everyone hates a tease. But this is the good kind of tease, and one that lets you get back at Vegas for setting such good lines. So lets get back at those number nerds by hitting these three picks in a teaser in our NFL week 5 betting come Sunday.
The Ravens are a much better team than the Bengals, no one is denying that. The Bengals rank 16th in defensive DVOA, 30th in pass rush, and 21st in stopping the run. Lamar Jackson should be salivating. So should his defense. They rank 9th in defensive DVOA and 7th in pass rush vs the Bengals 25th pass blocking line. Styles make fights, this shouldn’t be a fair one, and teasing it helps you avoid laying so many points that garbage time can haunt you with. Big Truss.
Jaguars @ Texans Over 48.5
Don’t expect much defense in Houston come Sunday. The Jaguars and Texans rank 32nd and 27th in DVOA, respectively. These teams are also a combined 6-2 hitting the over in 2020. Romeo Cornell is (conservatively) about 150 years old, and there’s a reason he wasn’t a head coach until Bill O’Brien tried playing Madden. Gardner Minshew’s facade and Deshaun Watson’s actual talent calls for plenty of points.
Eagles @ Steelers Under 50
We have a Steelers defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA, 1st in pass rush, and 1st in stopping the run. Contrast that with the Eagles offense ranked 31st in DVOA and a defense ranked 14th in DVOA and 4th. They’ll see Ben Roethlisberger who is, well, suspect (on and off the field). His weapons are just decent, the line ranks 23rd in pass blocking. Also, Ben is liable to take a series off faking a broken leg when it’s really a trip to the blue injury tent for some privacy for undisclosed reasons. This game screams Michael Vick and not Jason Pierre-Paul (dogfight vs fireworks), so don’t expect much offense.
Moneyline Parlay at +116 Odds
Here we have the perfect parlay to make you some money to keep your wife, bookie, or landlord off your back. So let’s pick some winners, and some losers.
The Ravens and Seahawks are easy winner picks while the Giants (vs Cowboys) and Washington (vs Rams) are easy loser picks. The Giants have scored 3 TDs all year and Daniel Jones hasn’t stopped eating popcorn before games. Washington isn’t ready to be compete, as they’re still trying to make a name for themselves. While the payout won’t pay off your student loans or buy you a vacation home, always remember there is no value in losing tickets, and we always want to build a ticket we have confidence in winning. So, the weekly moneyline parlay is as follows:
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 5 betting. Check out The Football Discussion for a more comprehensive breakdown of every matchup, as well as weekly game recaps. Check out more sports content at CrowWorthy.com
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