Welcome to “NFL Week 16: Over / Under Picks We Love.” Before we break down the picks, let’s recap Week 16. The tide is turning in my favor after a successful week at the office. I’ll tell you that much.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 48: The last minute Bucs scored almost endangered this total, but the game ended with 47 as the total so we cashed. Win.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins Under 38: Super low total, but the offenses did not show up and the under hit with ease. Win.
  • Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Over 43: Horrible, horrible game to pick the over. If the total was set at 27, you would’ve still lost. Loss.

Season total: 22-25-1

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants, O/U 41

This is a game that I’m relying on backups to take over for the Cowboys. Although Jerry Jones has stated the staters are going to play, I don’t imagine that will happen. Why should Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot play if the Cowboys cannot improve their playoff position? It’s not worth the risk. Having said that, Cooper Rush, who has not thrown a pass all year, would take over for Dak at quarterback. On the other side, the Giants are still a mess despite having a stellar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys front 7 will still give the Giants problems. If the starters don’t play for the Cowboys, which I’m betting on, this should be a low scoring affair.

Under 41

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills, O/U 39.5

This could be an ugly, ugly game. You know things are bad when a 7-8 team is a 6 point underdog to a 5-10 team. Both teams have struggled as of late, but at least Buffalo’s defense, which is very good, keeps games closer than they should be. The under hits frequently for both teams as Miami is 5 for their last 7 and Buffalo is 9 of their last 13. Also, the Dolphins are awful on the road with a 1-6 SU record. I’m expecting a defensive struggle with the Bills coming out on top 20-7. Bet the under.

Under 39.5

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 45.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in full desperation mode. After losing 4 of their last 5 games, the Steelers no longer control their own destiny in the AFC North. They will need a win and a Ravens loss to win the division and make the playoffs. Because of that, I expect the Steelers to come out swinging on all cylinders. I’m predicting an offensive explosion from Big Ben and company. This may come as a surprise to some, but Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel has not been bad as the replacement to Andy Dalton. Driskell has 6 TDs compared to only 2 INTs. Plus, Joe Mixon has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. Bottomline is I expect the Steelers to put up 30 points. Can the Bengals manage 16 points? Yes they can. Be patient because this over should hit late in the 4th quarter.

Over 45.5