Performance Last Week
Saying we are hot is an understatement. Week 16 we finished 3.5-2.37 (59.63%) and that brings us to (using round numbers) 103-67 (61.70%). We added a few hedges (BUF moneyline and TEN/GB over) for peace of mind. We could’ve made EVEN MORE money, but guaranteeing some profitability is never a bad thing. You can follow these live picks on Twitter @BasedColby.
TB -3.5 and MIA/LV under 53.5 was one of our better picks of the year for a few reasons. Tom Brady lit up the stat sheet, and Tampa rolled the Lions. MIA/LV was the “perfect” teaser where the final score fell between our number and the original’s. Even with the late game heroics from both offenses, this one cashed.
LAR -1.5 was one of the worst misses I’ve had all year. Goff looked awful and his the injury didn’t help. To make matters worse, I shorted Seattle’s defense evidently. I defended the Rams for very long, but they let me down, and for that, I hope Arizona kicks their ass Sunday and they miss the playoffs.
Advice for the Week: Who’s in Who’s out?
Keep an eye out for players that might be injured or resting playing for teams that already have playoff spots secured. Week 17 makes for a good week to get some rest heading into the gauntlet the NFL playoffs are. This also could affect how teammates or opponents perform as well. This means that other teams jockeying for playoff seeding may lean towards playing, or sitting, certain players. For example the Steelers announced Big Ben will be resting and that could potentially affect how the Bills/Dolphins games shakes out. Be weary, watch Shefter/Rappaport’s twitters, and be diligent.
This week’s betting card doesn’t feature much, and there is a few good reasons for such. We are WAY UP this year (61.70%), and there’s no need to get overzealous and make irresponsible picks. Quality>quantity. Also, with so many difficult angles with who is in the playoffs and who is out, there are a lot of iffy motivations on this week’s slate, and I prefer to avoid them. We have 2 teasers and 1 moneyline parlay to help finish off our strong 2020 NFL betting.
6.5 Point Teaser at +135 Odds
BAL -6.5, WAS/PHI under 49.5, SEA/SF over 39.5 at +135 Odds
The Ravens have everything to play for, and every advantage you could imagine. The Ravens outpace the Bengals on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals pulled one out of their @$$ last week, so lets bank on some regression from them. In nearly every major defensive analytic the Ravens rank are 10th or better vs CIN offense ranks no better than 25th. On offense for BAL they are no worse than 12th and CIN defense ranks no better than 23rd. Let’s teaser the Ravens under the key number of 7.
Lots of defense, and two teams wondering what their QB situation iwll be next year. That makes for some good under action. Lets tease the under 49.5 Here is how WAS and PHI grade out:
- WAS D 2nd DVOA and pass DVOA and 3rd in EPA/play vs PHI off is 29th, 27th and 29th, respectively.
- PHI defense 17th DVOA and 14th EPA/play vs WAS offense 30th and 28th
Seattle’s defense has performed well, but that continuing concerns me. SF has no playoff hopes, and is playing fast and loose which can lead to points for both teams. SEA one advantage in this game is their is 9th best pass blocking vs SF 26th in pass rush. Oh, and Russell Wilson is due for some positive regression, so let’s tease this over 39.5.
6-Point Teaser at -120 Odds
NO/CAR under 54 and MIN/DET under 60.5
The Saints have some advantages on defense, and Carolina is all over the place and lacking any motivation to keep this one competitive. Expect the Saints to get ahead and stay ahead here. Also, NO could use an under. Here’s how they matchup:
- NO D 7th in DVOA and EPA/play vs CAR off is 25th in both
- NO D is 1st run DVOA vs Car off is 18th
- Saints 10-5 hitting the over
MIN has advantages all over on offense. Stafford’s health is in question. I’m not doubting we will see some points, but whether or not DET can keep it competitive enough to allow the score to be driven up in this one. Both teams are battle tested, which usually makes for a sloppy game.
- MIN O 9th DVOA and 13th EPA/play DET 32nd in both
- MIN O 11th pass DVOA and 6th run DVOA vs DET D is 32nd and 26th, respectively
- Vikings SOS 3rd vs DET SOS 1st
Moneyline Parlay at +109 Odds
This week let’s get some teams with their backs against the wall (IND), needing a win (TEN), and ones playing far inferior opponents (BAL). And also throw in the red hot Buccaneers. The parlay is as follows:
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 17 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.