Welcome to “NFL Week 16: Over / Under Picks We Love.” Before we break down the picks, let’s recap Week 15. It was a horrible week to bet overs, I’ll tell you that much.

  • Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Under 36.5: Although the total was extremely low, both teams were playing inexperienced quarterbacks, which lead to the under hitting. Win.
  • New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Over 54: The shootout never happened as the defenses held strong and kept the total below 30. Loss.
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Over 50: If you wanted to watch two struggling quarterbacks with little to no points, this was the game for you! Loss.

Season total: 20-24-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys, O/U 48

If there’s one thing I can guarantee, it’s that Dallas will not be shut out again. Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 28.8 points per game so look for the Cowboys offense to get back on track. However, the Cowboys’ defense was also exposed by the Colts especially on the ground, who rushed for 178 yards and 2 TDs. I expect an inspired effort from the Cowboys in the bounce back. The Bucs offense has only managed 26 points in the previous two games. Expect that trend to continue against an elite Cowboys front 7. Bet the under on this one as it has hit in 16 of the last 23 games for Dallas.

Under 48

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins, O/U 38

Until proven otherwise, do not trust Cody Kessler and the Jaguars’ offense. Here are the point totals from the last three games with Kessler under center: 6, 9, and 13. Last week, Kessler threw for only 57 (!!!) yards against the Redskins and that was at home in Jacksonville. Do I think Miami has an elite defense? No, but they’re a good home team with a 6-1 SU record. The under has hit in 4 of the last 6 Miami games and I believe it will be 5 of the last 7 when the game ends on Sunday. I’m not putting faith in Cody Kessler to score points. I won’t do it.

Under 38

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers, O/U 43

Congratulations to the Bears on the NFC North title, but do not sleep on San Francisco at home. They are sneaky good at home this year with a 4-3 record including two straight wins against the Broncos and Seahawks. Chicago is not going to rest any starters for now as they have a chance to receive a first round bye so I expect the Bears to go all out. The Chicago defense is a top 3 unit in all of the NFL, but something about playing at San Francisco makes me cautious. The over has hit in 6 of the last 9 games played in San Francisco. With a low total, I believe Nick Mullens can put some points on the board to help hit the over.

Over 43