NFL Week 16 Bets

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Born and raised in Western New York. Host of "The Football Discussion" and "Lets Cash" podcasts and sports betting topic writer. Washed up former athlete turned slow-pitch softball enthusiast.

The Seahawks made the right decision by passing at the end of Super Bowl 49.

Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve some winning NFL week 16 bets after yet another profitable week (we’re making a habit of that).

Performance Last Week

Week 15 allowed us to cash some tickets, much like we have been all season long. I added MIA -1 before kickoff, and hedged out of PHI/AZ under 55.5 teaser (thankfully). You can follow these live picks on Twitter @BasedColby. The logic behind the hedge was that the 1 o’clock games went in our favor very much so, and I prefer to guarantee a profitable week, given the chance. Overall, our picks went 4.4-1.36 (76.39%). Overall for the year we are up over 40 units, and sitting at 61.77%, well over our goal of 55-57%.

Serving Crow

From Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images)

TB -3.5 was one that didn’t look good early. But a wise man once said “It ain’t how ya start, it’s how ya finish.” I even said Brady wouldn’t need to mount a comeback, despite coming back to crush Falcons fans yet again. But in the end, I’ve called for Antonio Brown to get more involved and the Tampa Bay offense to kick it into overdrive, which they did. The part I love most about this pick was the timing of it. We got it early, and it cashed, instead of those who got it later in the 5.5-6 range and missed out. As a finance guy, market timing is always gospel.

Eating Crow

From Getty Images

The first NFL game where both teams lost. The Rams lose to the joke that the New York Jets are, and the Jets no longer hold the first pick in the NFL Draft in order to get Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. There we’re no winners here, including our moneyline parlay. No one saw it coming though, so I cant feel TOO bad.

Advice for the Week: Motivation

As the playoffs approach, some teams have more to play for. A team on the edge of the playoffs may be more aggressive, leading to more fourth down conversion attempts, passing up FGs for a chance at a TD, and a few trick plays to get them over the hump. Other teams are dead in water and playing for draft positioning. While you shouldn’t blindly bet the team with more on the line, if you’re leaning towards a team or an over where the game features on of the these teams, this can be the final nudge you need to lock in the bet.


LAR -1.5

Each week offers an opportunity. Last week it was to get embarrassed, but this week it is for redemption. This is the perfect time to “buy low” on L.A. The Rams are in a tight division race, beat the Seahawks earlier this year, and are simply a better team top to bottom. This spread is below all key numbers, and Los Angeles has the resources to contain Russell Wilson. On the other hand, Jared Goff may reek of “system QB’ but when the o-line is good, so is he. Here’s how they matchup:

  • LAR 8th pass blocking vs SEA 22nd pass rush
  • LAR offense 1st run DVOA vs SEA defense 12th

Teaser Options: 6-point Teaser at -120 Odds

TB -3.5 and MIA/LV under 53.5

The Buccaneers have serious expectations, and the Lions have serious issues. Tampa Bay out grades Detroit in damn near every category. Here’s the tale of the tape:

  • TB offense 5th dvoa and 6th EPA/play vs DET defense is 32nd in both
  • O 6th pass DVOA vs DET D 31st
  • D 1st run DVOA vs DET O 23rd
  • D 4th run stop vs DET O 19th

Derek Carr has injury concerns, and this Miami defense has proven all year how dominant they can be. Tua is still learning on the job, and this will be a dogfight for two teams battling to get into the playoffs. Here’s how they grade out:

  • LV pass rush 16th vs MIA pass blocking 27th
  • MIA run blocking 23rd vs LV run stopping 3rd

Expect some turnovers, the running backs to get their touches, and a “grind it out” type of game, all setting up for a good under.

CHI -1.5 and TEN/GB over 50

Chicago has their fair share of problems. But they still have plenty to play for, as they aren’t dead yet. The Jaguars are the perfect team to get some confidence rolling against, and we’re getting below the key numbers of 7 and 3. Here’s what the numbers show us:

  • CHI D 10th pass DVOA vs JAX O 25th
  • CHI D run DVOA 5th vs JAX O 16th

Additionally, Vegas has both of the teams figured out, both are within a couple games or closer to .500 ATS and hitting the over. Vegas likely has a good line set on this one, and getting away from it on a teaser gives us a good opportunity to let Vegas be right, while we still make money.

Green Bay and Tennessee have QBs that are playing at very high levels. And both teams have questionable at best defenses. This should be a close one, with a down to the wire finish which means we could see some late game fireworks (points). There are plenty of offense over defense mismatches in this one.

  • Offenses rank 3rd and 2nd in DVOA vs the defenses rank 28th and 18th
  • Offenses rank 1st and 2nd in EPA/play vs the defenses rank 27th and 15th
  • TEN D 30th pass DVOA vs GB O is 3rd

The list goes on and on, but you get the point. Lets get it to and more reasonable number via a tease, and cash this ticket come Sunday.

Moneyline Parlay

Favorite at -138 Odds

Here we are keeping it simple like we always do. Let’s find some bad teams (NYJ, NYG, ATL) and fade them. The parlay to win a unit is as follows:

  • CLE
  • BAL
  • KC

Secondary at +257 Odds

We will get a little more creative here and trying an find a bigger payout to make things a little more interesting. We’re still looking to build a winner, but are willing to take on a little more risk while doing so. Wagering unit on the following parlay:

  • MIA
  • BUF
  • NO
  • TB

I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 16 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.

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