Welcome to “Let It Ride or Let It Die: NFL Week 16 Edition.” What bets should you ride and what bets should you avoid and let die? 3-1 week for yours truly. Here are my results from Week 15.
Where we: LET IT RIDE
Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: The Raiders were playing well as of late, but the Bengals erased that quickly, winning by double digits. Loss.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts -3: Andrew Luck and the Colts are for real as they shut out the Cowboys in dominant fashion. Win.
Season total: 14-15-1
Where we: LET IT DIE
Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings: This was a one possession game in the third quarter, but the Vikings blew the doors off the Dolphins in the 4th quarter for the blowout victory. Win.
Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5: I said it was weird that bettors were supposed to trust a 4-9 team that had to cover more than a touchdown spread. I was right as the Redskins won outright. Win.
Season total: 18-12
Let It Ride: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys -7
This has all the makings for a Dallas blowout. The Cowboys were embarrassed last weekend against the Colts, losing 23-0. I believe Dallas is still the best team in the NFC East because of their defense, which is ranked in the top 5 in many statistical categories including points and yards per game. Also, the Cowboys at home are a tough team to beat as Dallas is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at JerryWorld. With the Bucs way out of playoff contention, I expect the Cowboys to put together a complete, dominating performance.
Ride Cowboys -7
Let It Die: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Another week means you have another chance to fade Cody Kessler. Are you really about to bet your money on a quarterback that threw for 57 yards last weekend? Kessler has engineered 1 touchdown drive in 31 possessions since becoming the starter. On the other side, Miami has everything to play for as they need a win in order to stay in the Wild Card hunt. With a 6-1 record at home, the Dolphins will win this game outright and cover the spread. Avoid the Jaguars.
Let Jaguars +3.5 Die
Let It Ride: Seattle Seahawks +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Sunday night matchup this week happens to be the best game of the week as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Both teams need to win for different reasons. Kansas City is in a tight battle for home field advantage throughout the playoffs as well as the AFC West title while the Seahawks need to win for a Wild Card spot. Kansas City is still elite on offense thanks to 45 TD passes from Patrick Mahomes. However, when Seattle is a home underdog, they are 18-5 ATS since December 2008. Plus, under the bright lights in Seattle, the Seahawks are 15-3-3 ATS in primetime home games. I’ll take Seattle as a home underdog any day of the week.
Ride Seahawks +2
Let It Die: Los Angeles Rams -14 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams are fading and they are fading quickly. The Super Bowl talks have began to grow silent after the Rams lost two straight games. Surprisingly, the offense has been a major problem during the losing streak. Todd Gurley has been dealing with knee problems and Jared Goff has thrown for 1 TD and 7 INTs in his last 3 games. That’s not going to be good enough to win the Super Bowl. Credit to Arizona for playing hard still this season. The Cardinals have covered large spread this season such as +16 at Kansas City and +13.5 Green Bay. With Arizona playing at home, I’m expecting another close game and an inspired effort by the Cardinals in order to cover. Avoid the Rams.
Let Rams -14 Die
Let’s earn some money. #CrowWorthyTake