Welcome to “NFL Week 15: Over / Under Picks We Love.” Before we break down the picks, let’s recap Week 14. It’s time to get out of my slump.
- New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Under 48: Well, this game didn’t go to plan. A shootout was not expected so the over hit. Loss.
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 51: I guess a push is better than a loss. Push.
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 44.5: A bad week capped off by another over hitting. Loss.
Season total: 19-22-1
Bounce back week is a MUST.
Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 36.5
This total is extremely low. It’s almost too low that you think to yourself that there’s no way this total could go under. But can it? The serious question revolves around both teams’ offenses. The Redskins have scored 29 points in their last two games while the Jaguars have only scored 15. The quarterback matchup will be between Josh Johnson and Cody Kessler. Something has to give, right? Wrong. Expect a battle between field goal kickers. It’s risky, but I’m taking the under.
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 54
The game of the weekend should be a battle between quarterbacks. Tom Brady looked sharp in defeat last week, throwing for 358 yards and 3 TDs. On the other side, Ben has struggled as of late (3 straight losses), but a home game is just what the doctor ordered. The over has hit in 5 of 6 home games for the Steelers. I expect both teams to struggle to run the ball (especially with the injury to James Conner) and will end up airing all over the field in a shootout. Both the Steelers and Patriots average 28 or more points per game. Expect a lot of points. Hit the over.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers, O/U 50
Something is weird about this matchup. The point total has dropped from 54.5 to 50. Sharp line movement like that means smart and big bettors have been hammering the under. Why is that? A lot of it has to due with the Panthers offense being one dimensional. Everyone not named Christian McCaffrey has been a liability of late. It’s not secret that the offense revolves around CMC (1,627 yards from scrimmage). However, the Saints are first against the run, allowing only 77.6 yards per game. With all that being said, the Saints are not an unstoppable defensive force. Plus, the Panthers are a much different team at home offensively with point totals of 27, 42, and 36 in their last 3 home games. I’m betting against the trend here and hitting the over.
Good luck this week! #CrowWorthyTake