NFL Week 15 Bets

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Born and raised in Western New York. Host of "The Football Discussion" and "Lets Cash" podcasts and sports betting topic writer. Washed up former athlete turned slow-pitch softball enthusiast.

The Seahawks made the right decision by passing at the end of Super Bowl 49.

Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve some winning NFL week 15 bets after a profitable week 14.

Performance Last Week

Week 14 was up and down, but in the end, a profitable one. After going back to the well with the halftime winning margin bets Sunday Night, we were able to make week 14 end in our favor. I added 7 of those bets, all at “plus money” cashing the Bills to win the first half by 1-3 at +850 odds. This made the process of adding multiple sides on the same outcome profitable, going up 2.5 units overall. You can follow these live picks on Twitter @BasedColby. Overall our picks went 3.5-3.12 (52.87%) for the week and we are at 61.23% on the year, well over the 55-57% goal for the year.

Serving Crow

Our teaser of GB -1.5 and TB -.5 cashed. Green Bay’s defense let this one get interesting, which is exactly why we teased it. I said be weary of key numbers like 7, and any teaser where the final number falls between your number and the original, is the ideal teaser. TB was good but not great. A few lucky breaks from Vikings kicker Dan Bailey made it possible. But in the end, the logic here was directly on point.

Eating Crow

From NFL.com

HOU -1 was a disaster. The Bears rolled the Texans, and this was like lighting money on fire. If Mitch Trubisky has to play out his @$$ in order for me to lose a bet, I guess I’ll just have to live with it.

Advice for the Week: Data Doing Dirty Work

I’ve previously talked about how as the NFL season progresses we have more data to work with. We get a better idea of who these teams are, and how the sportsbooks value them. By this time of the year, Vegas gets REALLY good, but we can use this against them.

You can find ATS and O/U results and use the teams that Vegas has very well figured out, and simply move the lines with teasers. What this will essentially do is allow you to “bet on Vegas” (not the Raiders, they’re not half as good as the media has made them out to be). If Vegas is good enough to get the spread or total points within a few points on both teams very often leading into their matchup, there’s reason to believe Vegas will continue this. Let the data do the dirty work, move the line, and let Vegas be right again. But this time were making money off of it.

Picks

TB -3.5

From Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images

Tampa Bay may have been less than stellar last week, but make no mistake, they still covered. I moved early to get this one. Atlanta lacks motivation and identity. Brady won’t need a 28-3 comeback in this one. Here’s how the numbers shake out:

  • TB D 2nd pass & 7th run DVOA vs ATL O 28th & 21st, respectively
  • D run DVOA 2nd vs ATL O 28th
  • O pass DVOA 6th vs ATL D 20th
  • O EPA/play 6th vs ATL D 16th
  • SOS 4th vs ATL 16th

Tampa Bay far outpaces Atlanta, so moving on the Buccaneers at the look-ahead line of -3.5 was a must

6-point Teaser Options at -120 Odds

TEN/DET Tease over 45.5 and PHI/AZ under 54.5

The Titans offense has some VERY clear advantages over Detroit. But we all know Tennessee’s defense has holes, and Lions QB Matt Stafford is always good for getting some points up. Detroit is battle tested so they should be able to keep it respectable like we saw them do last week vs Green Bay. And if it comes down to it, some Matt Stafford garbage time should do the trick as well, since 45.5 isn’t much in today’s NFL. Here’s the breakdown:

  • TEN is 3rd in DVOA, pass DVOA, run DVOA, and EPA/play
  • Detroit ranks 31st, 30th, 26th, and dead last 32nd, respectively
  • DET SOS 6th vs TEN 26th

Jalen Hurt’s got a lot of hype for leading the Eagles to a win. But that’s the media using the opportunity to start a good QB controversy. Not to say there won’t be one this offseason in Philly, but Hurts wasn’t exactly 2013 Peyton Manning in week 14. The Cardinals defense is no slouch, and the Eagles are roughly the same. The numbers show us how running the ball and defense should control this game.

  • PHI 2nd run blocking o-line vs AZ D is 24th run stopping
  • AZ D 9th pass DVOA vs PHI O 27th

Philly won’t pass it. They’ll run it, chewing the clock, and quickly count down the minutes until we cash this teaser.

BUF -.5 and SF/DAL over 39

Buffalo’s defense is heating up at the perfect time. Usually I like to fade the hot teams, but this week we’re going to ride the Bills vs an erratic Broncos squad. Allen should also put together another solid performance. Lets tease this past they key number of 3.

  • BUF D 16th DVOA vs DEN O 31st
  • D 2nd pass rush vs 22nd pass blocking
  • O 4th pass blocking o-line vs 24th pass rush

The 49ers and Cowboys would be a more fun game to watch if this were the early 90s, but we’ll make it fun by making money off it, Andy Dalton isn’t good but 39 isn’t that many points. Dallas’ offense has also made some strides recently.

  • SF O 17th run DVOA vs DAL D 27th

This weeks advice rings true here. Dallas is 7-7 hitting the over this year, with an average variance of about +5 ppg. SF is 6-8 with an minimal variance on total points per game. Vegas has these teams well figured out, and chances are the final score will come very close to their original number set on this game. We will tease it, and let Vegas do the dirty work while we cash this ticket.

Moneyline Parlay

Favorite at -136 Odds

The Rams are extremely good front to back, and top to bottom. The Baltimore Ravens are getting their groove back, and I doubt Lamar makes the mistake of having his pre-game meal be 7 Fiber bars, so he won’t be missing any time. The Bengals are lost and the Steelers are angry. And lastly, the Bills are hot and we’re simply going to ride the hot streak. The parlay to win a unit is as follows:

  • LAR
  • BAL
  • PIT
  • BUF

Secondary at +111 Odds

Indianapolis is in the middle of a division race, whereas the Texans are in the middle of a coaching search. Tennessee is in that same division race, and the Lions are also in the middle of a coach search. Tampa Bay is in the midst of a four game tune up stretch to get hot before a playoff run, and the Falcons, you guessed it, are more concerned with finding a coach. The parlay, wagering a unit, is as follows:

  • IND
  • TEN
  • TB

I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 15 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.

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