Welcome to “Let It Ride or Let It Die: NFL Week 15 Edition.” What bets should you ride and what bets should you avoid and let die? Another 50% week. Here are my results from Week 14.
Where we: LET IT RIDE
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers -5: The mortal lock hit with ease. Thank you, Aaron Rodgers. Win.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans -5: Andrew Luck and crew stopped the Texans winning streak so credit to the Colts, who are for real. Loss.
Season total: 13-14-1
Where we: LET IT DIE
New York Jets +3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills: Curse you Sam Darnold. You are the truth. Tip of the cap for your game winning drive. Loss.
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Picking on the Vikings for the second straight week was the right move as the Seattle defense dominated Kirk Cousins all night. Win.
Season total: 16-12
Here we go.
Let It Ride: Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Two bad teams face off on Sunday as Oakland travels to Cincinnati. I know, exciting, right? However, there is some good betting value in this game. Oakland has played better as of late as they pushed Kansas City to their limit two weeks ago and upset the Steelers last weekend. Since 10/14, Derek Carr has thrown 11 TDs and 0 INTs. The Bengals are a mess right now with no Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Throw in the fact that Cincinnati surrenders the most yards per game (421.9) and points per game (30.5) has leaning towards taking Oakland and the points.
Ride Raiders +3
Let It Die: Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Are the Miami Dolphins the worst 7-6 team ever? What’s even crazier is in the last 16 games that Ryan Tannehill has been under center and Adam Gase on the sidelines, the Dolphins are 12-4. It’s mind boggling. Miami will be riding high off of the “Miami Miracle.” However, the Dolphins are a horrible road team with a record of 1-10 SU and a 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. For Minnesota, the sky is falling after two straight road losses to the Patriots and Seahawks. However, a home game is just what the Vikings needed (10-2 SU in last 12 home games) as the Vikings offense should get back on track against a Dolphins defense that allows over 400 yards per game. Avoid the Dolphins.
Let Dolphins +7.5 Die
Let It Ride: Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts -3
A tale of two seasons for both Dallas and Indianapolis. Over a month and a half ago, both teams were well below .500. However, after reeling off win streaks, the Cowboys and Colts now control their own destiny for the playoffs. Dallas is clicking on all cylinders. The defense is top 5 in many statistical categories. The Amari Cooper trade has worked wonders as Cooper has 3 TDs last week alone. However, there is concern in the running game this week as guard Zack Martin will sit out with an injury. Andrew Luck and the Colts picked up a gigantic win over the Texans last week. The Colts are very good at home (7-0 SU in their last 7). With the game on the line, who do you trust more, Dak Prescott or Andrew Luck? That’s what I thought. Bet the Colts.
Ride Colts -3
Let It Die: Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
Am I missing something? Why is this line so in favor of a team that is 4-9? I understand that the Redskins playoff chances have plummeted since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback. However, the Skins are still 6-7 and have a lot to play for. The Jaguars have been a disappointment all year. The defense is still very good, but they have these games like last week (allowed 30 points) that make you scratch your head. In the last two games with Cody Kessler as the starter, the Jags have scored 15 points combined. I’m not trusting Kessler to cover more than a touchdown spread against a stout Redskins defense.
Let Jaguars -7.5 Die