Performance Last Week
The goal for week 13 was to get back on track, and that’s exactly what we did. Our picks ended up going 3.19-1.55 (67.30%). We ended up cashing out our BAL -6.5 pick for a guaranteed 14% profit before the game went live. You can follow these live picks on Twitter @BasedColby.
NOBODY circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. I’ve been harsh on Josh Allen in the past, but saw last week as the perfect time to cash in on his stellar season. We had three picks on the Bills game; teased BUF +7 and BUF/SF over 41, and took the Bills -1. I said Allen would dominate, and 375 yards and 4 TDs later, we smiled all the way to the bank.
How the Seattle Seahawks managed to score only 12 points with Russell Wilson at QB is beyond me. Credit to the Giants defense for putting together their best performance of the year in pursuit of of a division title. However, Seattle’s let down cost us some money, despite my assurance we’d see Russ cooking.
Advice for the Week: Cash Out
With the rise in online and mobile sports betting “Cash Out” is becoming more popular and available to bettors. Major apps like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, and Bovada all now offer cash out functionality.
“Cash out” is relevant when a game goes live. The game can go positively or negatively for you, and the value of that bet changes. Example: You bet and over and the first quarter is a shootout. Your bet looks better, and the number you got pre-match has a lot of value. The opposite is also true. If it’s 0-0 at halftime, the bet loses value. Since nothing is ever for sure, you can cash the bet out at its current value. It’s essentially placing a hedged bet against your original wager, but instead of actually placing that second bet, these sites/apps give you the option to “cash out” the bet with one click. It’s like selling a stock. Whatever the market currently values that stock at, or wager in this case, that’s the price you can cash it out at.
So why do it? Defensively speaking, you can hedge your loses, but it can cost you a lot of value. Or you can lock in profits like I did with BAL -6.5 last week. People may argue this cash out cost me money since the Ravens did in fact cover that -6.5. However, that insinuates I lost money, when in reality I made a profit, and that’s always the goal. Cash out is essentially a risk mitigation tool that can be used in either direction. I don’t use it often, but its always there so you can take your money to the bank and celebrate an over 67% week like we did, or stop the bleeding when things go against you.
I mulled over this one for awhile. And usually that keeps me away from a pick, but the verdict is in: I have TONS confidence in this one. It’s simple really. The numbers show how the Texans truly outpace the Bears up and down the board. So lets take a look at my key measures:
- HOU run blocking: 6th vs CHI run stop: 16th
- Pass blocking: 16th vs CHI pass rush: 29th
- Pass rush: 12th vs CHI pass blocking: 24th
- Run stop: 11th CHI run blocking: 20th
Chicago may mail it in after losing to the Lions last week and the QB position is in shambles. Houston on the other hand has gotten better as the season has grown older.
6 point teasers at -120 Odds
GB 1.5 and TB -.5
- GB offensive DVOA and EPA/play 1st in both vs DET defense 32nd and 31st, respectively
- GB o-line is 1st in pass blocking and run blocking vs DET 26nd and 22nd attacking those measures, respectively
Tampa Bay is another team on that key number of 7. A teaser is the perfect way to make money on our NFL week 14 bets with Tom Brady coming off a bye week.
- TB pass blocking: 14th vs MIN pass rush: 28th
- Run blocking 18th vs MIN run stop: 32nd
- SOS: 3rd vs MIN: 16th
- TB 5-1 ATS after a loss
KC -1 and PIT +8.5
Nobody is doubting KC is the better team and should win. But the value lies in getting away from the keys numbers like 7. A full 7 points is a lot to lay in a potential low-scorer. The key metrics show us this could be a lower scoring game. Why? The Dolphins will look to run it, and KC has been playing their opponents closer than expected at times this year. Additionally, when you see two teams that aren’t very battle tested, expect a struggle to ensue. Here’s how these teams grade out:
- KC run blocking: 32nd vs MIA run stop: 14th
- Pass rush: 17th MIA pass blocking: 28th
- SOS: 30th vs MIA SOS: 32nd
The best way to celebrate backing the Bills last week is to “fade” them the following week and fool Vegas after adjust their perception of teams. The adjusted value I’m talking about is the swift line movement from -2.5 to +2.5 for PIT. The Bills are gaining steam, and I’m not saying they will or will not win, but getting over 1 possession for the Steelers is too enticing to pass up. Once again, weak previous opponents make for this one to be a close game and the tease gets us through the key numbers 3, 4, and 7. The key metrics here are as follow:
- PIT 6th run stopping vs BUF 31st run blocking
- BUF pass rush 2nd vs PIT pass blocking 30th
- PIT SOS 31st vs BUF SOS 26th
Pittsburgh is playing for the AFC’s 1 seed, and with the new playoff format, that means home-field advantage and a round 1 bye week. You really think Big Ben is going to pass up the chance to get a week off? Its the game of the week, and I cant wait to watch it and make money off it all in one.
Moneyline Parlay: +134 Odds
We’ve only got one moneyline parlay this week, but that’s because quality>quantity every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. And to prove it, we’re doubling down on this parlay to win 2 units on it.
Seattle will bounce back, and the Jets are the perfect tune-up to do so against. Philadelphia has QB problem, and we all know the weight the QB position carries in the NFL. Jacksonville needs no introduction, and Tennessee is still a strong team, even after getting rolled for 85% of last week’s game. Lastly, Green Bay is far superior than Detroit, as covered above. The parlay is as follows:
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 14 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.