Performance Last Week
Week 12 wasn’t as kind to us as the previous weeks. Our picks went 2-2.67 (42.83%). For the year that puts us at 61.15%, well above our goal of 55-57%. We are back to serve some NFL week 13 bets.
The 6 point teaser has two angles you can take. On the first pick, of getting New Orleans early and going under 62 was some of the easiest money you could ever make. I had no idea the Broncos QB situation would go the way it did. But the second pick, CLE/JAX was a perfect play. The perfect teaser is when the final number (52) falls between the original (49) and our teased number (55) I didn’t mind the original number of 49 and taking the under, but I had my reservations about it, so I teased it instead. Nick Chubb dominated as I banked on, and Baker did us some favors by missing throws, something we’ve grow accustomed to.
I had some sort of confidence in Carson Wentz and it cost me on my SEA/PHI over 48.5 I waited to get late. Even against one of the worst pass defenses we’ve ever seen in Seattle, Wentz looked as bad as his contract does for the Eagles. At least they dot have the pain of seeing Nick Foles being successful elsewhere. Otherwise we’d have to keep the Philadelphia people from jumping off the Ben Franklin Bridge and washing up in New Jersey and waking up New
York Jersey Jets fans. Russell Wilson’s second half of the season cool down continued. He wasn’t bad, but not the Russ that you love to see when you’re betting an over. DK Metcalf’s 177 yards was nice, but fewer drops (in the endzone especially) would have been nicer.
Advice for the Week: Unit Size
The best bankroll management tip is to budget your money efficiently and effectively. Don’t sell the farm on a “lock”, because you’ll eventually get burned. The best strategy is to bet 1-3% of your bankroll (a responsible amount) on any single bet. It keeps you from going broke quickly, and keeps your gambling sustainable, win or lose. If you keep losing, you need to reevaluate your strategy for sure, but we serve winners here, so what should you do once you’ve caught fire and you’re winning?
As you continue to win, your bankroll will obviously grow. And periodically you can adjust your unit size proportionally. When you started, your bankroll was $1,000 with unit sizes of say $30, but you’re cashing tickets, so it’s time to adjust. Say your bankroll is now $2,500. 1-3% unit sizes would make your new unit size of $75 give or take. Keep track of your winners, losers, and bankroll. As you win (or lose) continually look to adjust you unit size throughout the year from time to time. Personally, I’ve increased mine once already this year.
As long as Lamar Jackson is playing I like this pick, even with Ravens reeling. Its the perfect time to buy a team, when they’re low. Dallas’ defense is 26th in pass rush and 30th in run stop. Baltimore’s offense is 10th and 8th in attacking those measures. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense is 7th in DVOA and 6th in EPA/play where as the Cowboy’s offense is 26th and 29th in the same measures. The Cowboys have had their woes this year, and Jerry Jones wont see a playoff appearance anytime before his 108th birthday this year.
Bills -1 at -105 odds
Much like a few of Josh Allen’s passes, this line is all over the place depending where you look. But like this year’s version of Allen’s passes, I like this one. Lines will bounce back and fourth from +1 to -1 depending where the money is at. There isn’t much valued exchanged when these numbers flip-flop. Buffalo’s offense is 4th in pass blocking vs the 49ers 23rd pass rush. The Bills defense also has an edge in the passing game as their defense is heating up lately. They are 2nd in pass rush win rate while San Fransisco’s pass blocking is 20th.
Teaser Options: 6 point teasers
LV/NYJ under 52.5 and PHI/GB under 53.5 at +108 Odds
I’ll see your bad Jon Gruden defense, and raise you an even worse Adam Gase offense. Vegas will want to come out hot after getting rolled last week. The Jets will find themselves into a games where they fall behind, because they’re the Jets, and opponents can hit the cruise control. The Jets defense will slow Josh Jacob’s 21st ranked run blocking line with their 1st ranked run stop defense.
Green Bay’s pass rush is 22nd and Philadelphia’s pass blocking is 12th. Don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to find time to throw (or talk to his family). The Eagles are going to chew the clock behind their 4th ranked run blocking line facing a Packers defense ranked 20th in stopping the run.
BUF/SF over 41 and BUF +7 vs SF at -110 odds
I’ve already covered why I like the Bills, but why I like our chances to see some points in this one? First of all, 41 isn’t asking for much. And after shutting down Goff, the 49ers defense is due for a little setback. the Bills offense lives and dies with Josh Allen, and with the 4th ranked pass blocking line facing a 23rd ranked pass rush, they’ll be living this week. We’ll be indoors at the neutral site of State Farm Stadium, a prime opportunity for some points.
Favorite at -164 Odds
The favorite parlay is simple, pick some winners and losers. The Chiefs are the league’s best team, and the Jaguars and Jets are some of the league’s worst.
Secondary at +137 Odds
This one we got a little more creative, but still built a winner. The Bengals and Cowboys are on their backup QB, the Giants have exceeded expectations and are due for regression, and the Eagles are a punchline.
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 13 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.