Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve some winning NFL week 12 bets.
Performance Last Week
Week 11 was generous, and if you tailed my picks, you’re well aware. We went 8.26-2 (80.51%) on the week. And dating back to week 3 we’ve been profitable in 7 of the last 9 weeks. For the year we are hitting 61.77% our bets, well over the goal of 55-57%.
BAD Beat: MIA/DEN over 39
We teased the over in Miami/Denver, and boy did we sweat this one out in anticipation, only for a bunch of disappointment, much like a threesome. Late in the fourth quarter Denver fumbled at the goal line. Then Ryan Fitzpatrick, in relief duty, takes the Dolphins down the field, but it was too good to be true. In classic Fitzy tradition, he ends the game with a redzone INT, and our over dies along with Miami’s hot streak.
Best Hit: PHI/CLE under 53.5
Cleveland’s offense has found a rhythm. It isn’t scoring 50. It’s running the ball, and placing keep away. While I may not approve of this strategy for long term sustainability in the modern NFL, I’ll gladly keep betting unders in Browns games.
Worst Miss: NE -2
Even with the injuries for Houston’s offensive line and receivers, New England’s defense got shredded, mainly the pass rush. Watson was Watson, and Belichick’s defense has fallen from graces. Cam Newton had his bright spots, but only scoring 20 against this Houston defense is a reflection on the New England offense’s limitations.
We added some halftime winning margin bets in the LAR/TB all at plus money. Needing only 1 to hit, we cashed the Rams to win by 1-3 at halftime at +1000. Thankfully we stayed away from the NYJ/LAC under and DET +1.5.
Picks:
SEA/PHI over 50
Seattle’s defense ranks 23rd in pass rush and 27th in run stop. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 7th and fourth in attacking those measures, respectively. Additionally, the Eagles defense is 6th in run stop vs the Seahawks who are 23rd in run blocking. Russell Wilson will have to carry the offense, and that means points are on the horizon. This is one of the safer NFL Week 12 bets.
Teaser Options: 6 point teasers at -110 odds
CLE/JAX under 55 and NO/DEN under 62
Jacksonville’s defense is 31st in both DVOA and EPA/play while Cleveland’s offense ranks 22nd and 21st, respectively. Another advantage the Browns hold is the defense ranks 16th in those same measures and the Jaguars rank 25th and 26th. Cleveland will dominate. And will be running the ball to do so. That means running clock, and a mostly uncompetitive game, and no late game heroics (points) needed.
New Orleans defense is 3rd in DVOA and 8th in EPA/play vs Denver’s offense is 32nd and 31st respectively. Drew Lock is an under’s dream. Denver’s offense is also 29th in run blocking and New Orleans defense is 5th in run stop. The Saints will get ahead early, and stay ahead, so we can expect a 30-13 type-game.
CAR/MIN over 42.5 and AZ/NE over 42.5
Minnesota’s defense run stop is 32nd and Carolina’s run blocking is 12th. Minnesota’s offensive DVOA is 9th and EPA/play is 11th. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers defense is 19th and 11th, respectively. Expect Dalvin Cook to have a day. And even with a backup QB, the wide receivers of Carolina can find success vs a suspect-at-best secondary of the Vikings.
The Cardinals pass blocking is 3rd and the Patriots pass rush is 32nd. Additionally, Arizona is 0-4-1 hitting the over in their last 5 and NE is 1-4 hitting the over at home this year. Something has to give, and some regression to the mean is what we’re betting here.
Moneyline Parlay
Favorite: +142 odds
New Orleans is very well-rounded, and dominating right now, Denver won’t put a much fight. The Rams are also well-rounded, and get what’s left of the 49ers at this point in the season. And the Browns continues their easy schedule with a game vs the lackluster Jaguars. The moneyline parlay favorite is as follows:
- NO
- LAR
- CLE
Secondary: -150 odds
The Giants are showing some sort of resemblance of being a real football team lately Lets take on some risk on take them to beat the struggling Bengal’s with a backup QB. Green Bay gets the Bears who are, well, trying to find themselves we’ll call it. The secondary moneyline parlay is as follows:
- NYG
- GB
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 12 bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.
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