Performance in Week 10
Week 10 was another profitable week in the books. We’ve been making a habit of that. Our picks went 3-2 (60%). For the year we are hitting 60.27% of our bets, well over the goal of 55-57%.
Best Hit: TB -4.5
I defended the Buccaneers, and they defended me. Tom Brady got the offense back on track, and not overreacting to a one week hiccup proved to be the right move. Spoiler: I like the Buc’s offense again this week.
Worst Miss: TEN +8
Tennessee +8 on the teaser cost me a unit. And it wasn’t very close. They fell apart in a matter of 10 minutes with special teams failures. Coach
Vrabel might just have to go back to the “we don’t kick” strategy he deployed in 2019. However, I’m still not buying the Colts, and that will be reflected in my NFL week 11 bets.
Advice for the Week: Selling Futures
My golden rule of sports betting: There’s no value in losing tickets. When you have a future ticket, and it has appreciated nicely, selling it is often the right approach. It’s more fun to hold it to the end in hopes of the bigger payout, but I repeat; there’s no value in losing tickets. You made a good pick, and its reflected in the increased value of the ticket, now its time to be smart with your money and cash in on it while you can.
Prop Swap has created an online market for buying/selling futures. You can set an appropriate price by calculating the expected value the ticket currently holds. Additionally, you can field bids on your ticket. The choice is yours, but do what is best for your bankroll.
New England -2.5
Normally I don’t like to jump on a team after a big upset win. But the logic here is simple. Houston is dead. The defense ranks 28th in DVOA and dead last, 32nd, in EPA/play. New England’s offense has gotten back on track considering where they were in October. I’ll wait and see if it comes down to -2, but either way I like Super Cam to keep the Patriots alive in the AFC wild card race at least for one more week.
For starters, the Panthers will likely be without QB Teddy Bridgewater. If he plays, this play goes out the window. Detroit’s defense is far from good as they rank 25th in DVOA and 30th in EPA/play, but this week they’ll catch a break with Bridgewater sidelined. The offense however ranks 14th in 19th in the same metrics, whereas the Panthers defense only ranks 27th and 28th, respectively. The Panther’s have been frisky in the past, but that’s all coming to end very soon.
I’ll also be keeping and eye on the NYJ/LAC total to see if it goes any higher to grab a better number and go under. I’m targeting 48 as long as Darnold won’t be returning to action this week.
Teaser Options: 6-point teasers
PHI/CLE under 53.5 and LAR/TB over 41.5 at -110 Odds
Cleveland’s best play is the one where Baker turns around and hands it off. Expect to see more of that this week. Cleveland has the 3rd ranked run blocking line vs Philly’s 18th ranked run stop defense. The Eagles will also look to run the ball behind their 9th ranked run blocking line vs the Browns 30th ranked run stop defense. Lots of running, mediocre QB play, and Cleveland weather all makes for a low scoring game.
This next one is the game of the week. The teams have an extra day to prepare, and I like the offenses here. While neither defense is any sort of slouch, Tampa Bay’s offense is hitting their stride and Sean McVay will have Goff in positions to find success on Monday night. Even a mere 22-20 final would cash this bet. The Rams are also due for an over as they are 2-7 on the year hitting the over.
GB +8.5 and DET/CAR over 39.5 OR MIA/DEN over 39 at -110 Odds
You’re giving Aaron Rodgers points? I’ll gladly take those, and a few more. His offense is 2nd in both DVOA and EPA/play, and also boast the best pass blocking and 2nd best run blocking line in the NFL. The Colts don’t scare me, and even after serving me crow last week, I’ll “fade” them again. The offense merely ranks 18th in both DVOA and EPA/play whereas the Packers defense ranks 16th and 18th respectively.
The second part of this teaser has a condition along with it. If Teddy Bridgewater is out I’ll go with DET/CAR over 39.5. If he does play, give me MIA/DEN over 39 or potentially just adding the GB +8.5 to the first teaser to make it +174 odds. I like DET/CAR to go over because neither team plays much defense. Both rank in the bottom 10 of defensive DVOA and EPA/play. Conversely, the offenses rank top 15 in 3/4 instances in these same measures. As far as MIA/DEN as my backup pick, Miami’s defense and special teams is due for some regression. They’re still a solid unit, but the number of TDs and turnovers they’ve generated is not sustainable. 39 points in an NFL game isn’t much to ask for, and Tua has me liking his chances to find some success even vs a respected Denver defense.
Favorite at -177 Odds
Minnesota’s defense has come a long ways this year as they are up to 19th in DVOA and 16th in EPA/play. Dallas is coming off a bye, but an extra year is needed to fix their issues, not just an extra week. The Jaguars were frisky last week, but don’t expect it two weeks in a row. Pittsburgh is the better team clearly.
Secondary at +148
Andy Reid coming off a bye is a scary sight, much like him playing punt, pass & kick at 13 years old. They won’t lose to the Raiders both times this year. The Eagles couldn’t handle the Giants, and the Browns have a lot to play for in a competitive AFC wild card race. And to round things out, we’re fading the Jets because, well, we don’t need to do much explaining there.
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL week 11 bets together. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.