Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve some winning NFL super wild card weekend bets. We finished the regular season (roughly) 106-65 (61.85%), and together we are looking to cash more tickets this weekend.
Performance Last Week
Week 17 capped off a great NFL regular season for us. Our picks went 2.44-1.10 (68.93%), well over our goal of 55-57%. Simply put, we can’t be stopped right now, and we don’t plan on stopping anytime soon. At the end of the regular season, we have been profitable in 12/17 weeks and returned roughly 55 units to our loyal followers.
Serve Crow
Our 6.5-point teaser was like stealing candy from the Giants a baby. The Ravens stayed hot, WAS/PHI was an offensive disaster with a ton of fallout afterwards, and SEA/SF wasn’t flashy, which we preferred. We made a 1.35 unit profit, and didn’t even have to sweat it out.
Eat Crow
Our only miss of the week was MIN/DET under 60.5. Cousins, despite not having much to play for, lit up the stat sheet. Also Matt Stafford, with about 87 injuries, hung tough and kept pace. The scoreboard was busy all night, and we missed pretty badly here. It happens, just ask half of this year’s kickers.
Advice for the Week: New Year, Same Me
Those of you who have been smart enough to tail this year’s picks have learned two things about myself; I cash tickets and I LOVE staying away from a game if need be. And if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This week we have a shortened slate of games compared to a normal week. With only 6 games this weekend we are NOT going to reinvent the wheel. We don’t need to “force” picks. Lets stay disciplined, diligent, and lets cash some tickets.
Picks
CHI/NO Under 48
The Saints defense is as complete of a unit as anyone left still playing. They take on a Bears offense that is the playoffs DESPITE their QB situation, not because of it. Drew Brees has been up and down, and the Saints will lean on Alvin Kamara, fresh off the COVID-19 list, to jump start the offense. Defense + running the ball = under action. Here’s how these two teams grade out:
- NO Defense vs CHI Offense
- 2nd DVOA vs 25th
- 3rd pass DVOA vs 23rd
- 2nd run DVOA vs 25th
- 4th EPA/play vs 24th
6-point Teaser at -120 Odds
LAR +10 and TB -2
The Rams and Seahawks grade out very evenly, with the only mismatch being LAR offense is 7th in pass blocking vs SEA defense is 23rd in pass rush. When Goff is protected, he is at his best. The Rams strength is on defense, and the Seahawks defense has been heating up lately. The total in this game is only 42, and in a game where points will come at a premium, taking 10 of them is a no-brainer.
Soon to be defensive rookie of the year winner Chase Young said he wanted QB Tom Brady. Well, he got what he asked for, but I don’t see Washington matching up well with Tampa Bay at all. The Buccaneers are red hot, and it took everything Washington had to edge the abysmal Eagles last week. Another game that looks like defenses should control the game, so lets get Tampa Bay under the key numbers of 7 and 3. Here is the tale of the tape heading into Saturday night’s game:
- TB Defense vs WAS Offense
- 5th in DVOA vs 32nd
- 5th pass DVOA vs 32nd
- 1st run DVOA vs 14th
- 5th EPA/play vs 28th
Moneyline Parlay at +106 Odds
This week we have 3 games where I see easy winners. The Bills are playing on a level of their own, and who knows what version of Phillip Rivers will show up Saturday afternoon. Tom Brady got his old man rest during his bye week, and hasn’t looked back since. He draws the best the NFC Least could offer. And finally, the Bears have no real business in the playoffs, and the Saints will make light work of them. We’ll double down to win 2 units on the following moneyline parlay:
- BUF
- TB
- NO (able to hedge for guaranteed 1.27 unit profit FYI)
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL super wild card weekend bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.
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