Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve some winning NFL Divisional Round bets. Things are heating up, and our bets have been doing the same.
Performance Last Week
The super wild card weekend was kind to us, and then some. We didn’t miss a bet going a perfect 4.18-0 (100%). Didn’t we tell you we serve winners here? That puts our season long total at 62.76%, well over our goal of 55-57%.
Serve Crow
Somehow our moneyline parlay came out at “plus” money. I couldn’t believe it, and I loved it so much I doubled down on it. It yielded 2.18 units in profit. I didn’t like the idea of laying so many points with Buffalo, and opted for a moneyline bet instead, the right call. The Buccaneers were simply too much for the Football Team as I predicted. And lastly, fading the Bears (mostly Mitch Trubisky) paid off.
Eat Crow
Considering we didn’t miss a bet, there isn’t much to be upset about. However, if we are splitting hairs, I said Goff would start, and he didn’t. However, he did come in and finish the game after Jamal Adams sent QB John Wolford to the hospital. But we took the points with Rams, and hit the Buccaneers in the dead middle with the teaser, so all’s well that ends well.
Advice for the Week: Anticipate Line Movement
Throughout the week, lines on spreads and totals will move. Making sure you’re tracking this movement is a useful tool to help get the most out of your betting. The market will adjust as more news (injuries, weather, public side) comes out. Keeping an eye on the injury reports, checking the forecast for each game time, and keeping an ear out for each team’s public perception will help you anticipate where the lines may move. If you think it will go against you get in early, or if you want to wait until it comes to a better number, be patient. Whether it is Buffalo’s January snow or Jared Goff’s thumb, make sure you stay informed and are able to recognize and act when the markets may be on the move.
Picks
10-point Sweetheart Teaser: -130 Odds
TB +9, KC -0, and GB +3
Typically watching two senior citizens trade punches is sad, and a I’m getting yelled at for recording it, but this one is fascinating. Brady and Brees have all the help around them they could ever want, and it sets up for a dog fight. Vegas has both of these teams figured out down to a science. That tells us that they probably wont miss by much, if at all, on this game. Let’s tease this away from Vegas’ number and let them be correct while we make money. Here’s proof Vegas is on top of the two opponents:
- Over/Under: TB 10-7 vs NO 10-7
- Against the Spread: TB 9-8 vs NO 10-7
KC is coming off a bye week, which means Andy Reid has had 2 full weeks of cheeseburgers and film review to prepare. That’s not a weight joke, he just genuinely loves cheeseburgers and so do I. After a quarter-pounder and some rest for his QB Patrick Mahomes, he will have the Chiefs ready to roll. We can’t expect the Browns to catch seemingly every lucky break like they did during the wild card round either. Here’s the tale of the tape:
- KC Offense vs CLE Defense
- Andy Reid off bye week
- 23-3 (including playoffs)
- With Mahomes: 40, 31, 40, 51, 35 points
Green Bay has the advantage of coming off a bye week, and not having to travel 2,100 miles 6 days after a game. Green Bay has the facilities to slow down the Rams defensive line and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. This will allow soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers earn his first home NFC Championship Game. Here’s how the Packers grade out this season:
- GB Offense
- GB 1st DVOA
- 1st pass blocking
- 1st pass DVOA
- LAR 16th run D vs GB 1st run blocking
- GB 5th run DVOA
- 1st EPA/play
- GB Defense
- 12th EPA/play vs LAR 23rd offense
Moneyline Parlay: +344 Odds
I HATE to do this, but were going back to elementary school and picking all the favorites. KC and GB don’t worry me at all. Buffalo has shown the ability to contain Lamar Jackson and I’ll ride with Allen for another week. And New Orleans is better coached and more experienced roster wide. We aren’t going to go crazy here, as this will only be to win a unit. The moneyline parlay that your 6-year-old nephew could also have concocted is as follows:
- BUF
- GB
- KC
- NO (can be hedged for .47 unit profit)
I wish you the best of luck with your NFL Divisional Round bets. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.
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