Colby Cummings, host of Lets Cash and The Football Discussion, gives you the blueprint on how to cash your NFL week 10 bets. We’re currently hitting 60.53% on the year, and looking to keep it rolling this week.
Performance Last Week
Last week’s picks went 5-2 (71.43%) after adding a couple bets later in the week. You can follow my NFL week 10 bets that come later in the week on Twitter @BasedColby. as the markets develop. That gets us to 60.53% on the year, well over our goal of 55-57%.
Serving Crow: Betting on the Ravens
“LAmaR JaCkSoN iSN’t tHe SamE”. Well, he is still a headache for defenses to defend, and we were betting on the entire team, not just Jackson. I doubled down on the Ravens at the open of -2.5 and again at -1.5 at -105 odds. I was upset I didn’t originally get the best valued line, but in the end both Ravens’ bets cashed, and that’s what we’re here to do.
Eating Crow: Tompa Bay
Antonio Brown has ruined the team. I’m kidding of course, but boy was this one ugly. I had the Buccaneers on a moneyline parlay because they were so much higher rated in several key metrics. Welp, the math nerds (and myself) missed on that one. Tampa Bay got throttled by their division rivals the New Orleans Saints 38-3 on Sunday Night Football. It was ugly from the start, and Tom Brady’s desperate throws all night never helped the cause.
Advice For the Week: Closing Line Value (CLV)
Betting markets are just like stock markets. Prices change with supply, demand, and psychology all playing a major factor. News such as weather, injuries, and heavy betting on one side will change the line set on a game. And as a finance guy, I am a firm believer in value being a major factor in my decision process. This goes hand in hand with week 7’s advice.
The Action Network offers an excellent example on how CLV can turn a loser into a winner.
Since 2005, if you bet on every NFL favorite, you’d have gone 1859-1860-111 against the spread (yes, these oddsmakers know what they’re doing). Because of the juice, that 50% win rate would’ve lost you 78.5 units. But let’s say you beat the closing line, on average, by just a half point on all those bets. Those 111 pushes would become wins, and it’s probably safe to assume that there were at least 111 half-point losses that would become pushes. Your record is now 1970-1749-111, a 52.9% win rate that puts you just over the point of profit (52.4%)
Per The Action Network
Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
I defended the Buccaneers after their shellacking on Sunday Night. And it’s time to put my money where my mouth is. If they burn me two weeks in a row, I’ll be back to eat crow. The issue last week was pass protection. They’ll fix that this week behind their 3rd ranked pass blocking line vs. the Panthers 24th ranked pass rush. The entire offense should dominate. Another week for Antonio Brown to get acclimated, and the 6th rated DVOA offense vs. Carolina’s 25th ranked defense in the same metric. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as favorite, so lets bet on the regression to mean here, and make money while they bounce back.
Green Bay Packers Moneyline
No one is doubting GB will win, so the question remains: Why pay the heavy juice? Green Bay’s offense is 2nd in both DVOA and EPA/play while the Jaguars rank dead last, 32nd, in both metrics. I guess you could say we have a mismatch. And while Green Bay’s defense is 29th in DVOA and 24th in EPA/play, Jacksonville’s offense is only 19th and 22nd, respectively. Green Bay’s strengths in this one far outweigh their weaknesses. It takes money to make money, so pay the juice, and thank me later.
Teaser Options: -110 odds
TB/CAR over 41 and SF/NO under 59.5
Thankfully I was able to get in early and get a more favorable number in this one. We’ve already discussed the Buccaneer’s offensive advantage in this one. But don’t sleep on Carolina’s offense. We’re not asking them to score 50, but just be competent. Even just 16 points from them could do the trick in this one. And for an offense ranked 12th in DVOA and 11th in EPA/play, that’s not asking for much.
Once again, getting in at the right time was beneficial here. The 49ers are undermanned. And this one won’t be close. 59.5 is A LOT of points, even in today’s NFL. New Orleans will get ahead and SF doesn’t have the tools to keep it competitive. SF only ranks 25th in run blocking, their supposed strength, and NO ranks 6th in stopping the run. These teams are a combined 12-5 hitting the over this year, so its time for some regression. Expect to see cruise control halfway throughout the 3rd quarter in this one.
TEN +8 and LAC +8.5
The matchup is clear in this one. Tennessee plays offense and Indianapolis plays defense. But expect the Titans to get after Rivers a bit, as their pass rush is ranked 12th vs. the Colt’s pass blocking ranked 21st. Tannehill will also see pressure behind the 23rd naked pass blocking line facing the 6th rated pass rush. It should be a classic divisional game dogfight, so lets get it away from those close numbers like 2 and 3.
Miami is the talk of the NFL (kind of). They are certainly one of the biggest surprises this year and are coming of a big win vs. Arizona. Fading the hot hand offers value. Miami is high, which means it’s a perfect time to sell them. They have benefited off the 26th hardest strength of schedule this year. The Chargers can’t close a game, so lets not even bother trying to hit that bet. Instead, lets tease this one away from 2.5 to 8.5 and take the two-possession spread to the bank. I am a little upset I missed the more favorable open at +3 on LAC here, however. Don’t worry, Miami, I’ll be back when everyone is calling you frauds and buy you at your low.
Moneyline Parlay: -169 Odds
This week I only have 1 moneyline parlay for you, but I prefer quality over quantity, and so should you. This one is simple. New England barely beat the Jets, and they needed a last minute drive to do it. And the Jaguars are well, the Jaguars. Lets fade both those struggling teams and cash this ticket. The parlay is as follows:
- New Orleans Saints
- Baltimore Ravens
I wish you the best of luck and lets cash NFL week 10 bets together. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash for a comprehensive breakdown of every NFL game from a betting perspective. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL.
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