This week has plenty of lines and totals that will leave you guessing. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Colby Cummings shows you how to bet the board of week 6 in the NFL.
Accountability
Last week our picks went 4.77-3 (61.4%). Lets take a look at a few noteworthy picks from last week.
Best Hit: 6-point teaser paid +150: Buccaneers +2, Ravens -6, Rams -1.5
It was a no-brainier to take the Ravens over the Bengals. The same is true for the Rams to handle Washington. Both cashed without breaking a sweat. But the first leg of the teaser, Buccaneers +2, certainly put your stomach in a knot. The Bears are still frauds, but somehow they won this game. Massive penalties and Tom Brady’s dementia (it starts at 43 for football players apparently) cut things close, but we still covered.
Worst Miss: Teased Eagles @ Steelers under 44
Bad misses are part of the game, and I own up to mine. I decided to bet an under in 2020, and my punishment should be a suspension from my Bovada account. Even with Big Ben’s noodle arm, Carson Wentz finding WRs at the local grocery store, and a Steelers defense ranked 2nd in pass rush and 1st in stopping the run, this somehow went over. And it wasn’t even close. This game went WAY over, despite teasing the points. I paid extra to get a “better” number, and that number laughed at me and made a TikTok from the locker room to mock me.
On the season we are 52.95-34-1 (60.9%) on our betting picks, which is well over the profitable threshold of 52.4%.
Betting Tip for Week 6: Key Numbers
There’s an important lesson to be learned when learning how to bet week 6 in the NFL. Week 6 has plenty of games with spreads falling on the key numbers of 3 and 7, with hooks out there as well. While this can be very tricky to bet, it does offer value. This week is a great time to get creative and play with lines via teasers. Such close matchups make for better watching than betting. To combat this, we’re going to be snipers, and pick and choose well-calculated shots. Simply put, there are two types of bettors: ones that are scared by tough lines, and those who find value in them. Being the latter is the best way to make a name for yourself at the betting counters. In the wise words of my college roommate, play you cards right and don’t settle for a questionable 3, when you have an opportunity for a 9.
Picks
Colts Moneyline
You wont find a more unfair matchup in professional football. The Bengals offense is going to have a miserable Sunday against this Colt’s defense. Looking at how these two match up, you have a Colts defense ranked 1st in DVOA vs the Bengals offense ranking 27th. The battle in the trenches will be a mismatch as well. The Bengals offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking and 15th in run blocking. The Colts defense ranks 3rd and 18th in defending those metrics, respectively. Joe Burrow is gonna need some devil’s lettuce in one of those post-game cigars to get some pain relief after this one.
Ravens -6.5 @ Eagles
The Eagle’s offense lives and dies by QB Carson Wentz carrying a forgettable WR cast, and this year, it’s been a lot of dying by it. The offense ranks 29th in DVOA vs. a Raven’s defense ranking 3rd . That same offenses ranks 28th in EPA/play where as the Ravens defense ranks 3rd. The Ravens roll teams inferior to them, and getting this alternate line keeps you off the key number of 7. Pay the extra juice, and take the Ravens.
Ravens @ Eagles Over 47.5
Warning: I’m about to contradict myself, and if I’m wrong, feel free to blame me when your girlfriend or wife is asking why you “borrowed” money from your kid’s college savings account. Even after previously describing the Eagle’s offensive struggles, I like our chances to see points in this game. For starters, the Steelers were able to torch the Eagle’s defense last week, and this Ravens offense is far better. The Eagles’ offense kept pace last week against a top defensive unit with the Steelers. They are only a couple steps away from turning things around. They rank 13th in pass blocking and and 7th in run blocking. Their efficiency measures are due to progress. They’re showing strides, and this is the week to buy their scoring potential while it’s low, as the rest of the NFL’s is inflated. With the scoring parade happening in the NFL, seeing a number like 47.5 is a gift. Also, the Ravens are 1-4 hitting the over, so they’re due for some regression to the mean. I’m not asking the Eagles to win, but just to keep it close and maybe grab a garbage time score if need be.
Rams @ 49ers Under 51.5
The 49ers offenses has struggled this year, ranking 24th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA/play. 49ers QB John Stamos Jimmy Garoppolo might not even start, but if he does, we can’t expect much. The Rams defense presents a mismatch ranking 8th and 4th in DVOA and EPA/play. The 49ers have gotten by due to their defense keeping them in games, ranking 8th in EPA/play. Even after Miami lit them up last week, expect them to bounce back in their 3rd straight home game, whereas the Rams had to go to Washington last week. Additionally, neither team is very battle tested thorough 5 weeks. The Rams and 49ers rank 29th and 31st in strength of schedule, respectively. The offenses are going to be like your friend’s parent’s divorce: a whole lot struggling over assets (points), and ultimately, they’ll come away with very little.
Teaser Options: +150 Odds
Ravens -1.5, Pats -4, Dolphins -3.5
I’ve covered why you should take the Ravens this week, and teasing them gets you far away from the key number of 7. The Patriots should dominate the incompetent Broncos on Sunday. The Broncos’ offensive line ranks dead last (32nd) league-wide in both pass and run blocking. The Patriots defense ranks 5th in stopping the run. Additionally, the Patriots get Cam Newton back, and he faces a Denver defense ranking 30th in DVOA. Thankfully, there is no Von Miller to wreak havoc on Cam this time around. In a game where the over/under is set at 45, points are said to be at a premium. Teasing this one keeps you protected against a closer-than-expected, sloppy game. Lastly, I refuse to lay 9.5 on a rebuilding team like the Dolphins or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the teaser is perfect here. The Jets ranks 27th and 32nd in offensive and defensive EPA/play. Conversely, the Dolphins rank 19th and 8th. The Jets are 0-5 against the spread and lost RB Le’Veon Bell (Adam Gase must be point-shaving). So where is the optimism with anything to do with the Jets? Fade them.
Lions @ Jaguars Over 48, Bears +7.5, Bills @ Chiefs Over 51.5
Matt Patricia’s defense has been abysmal in 2020, but don’t try and tell him that. They are 30th and 32nd in DVOA and EPA/play, respectively. Somehow the Jaguars are just as bad, ranking 32nd and 31st. Both offenses can use this as a get-right game, so expect some points on Sunday. If the Bears could slow down Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater shouldn’t be expected to accomplish much this week. This Bear’s defense ranks 5th in both DVOA and EPA/play. The Panther’s offense has been outperforming expectations. They rank 12th in EPA/play, but only 24th in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking. This isn’t sustainable, and the Bears will exploit that. QB Patrick Mahomes’ offense ranks 2nd and 4th in DVOA and EPA/play, respectively. Even after a letdown on Tuesday night, the Bills’ offense still ranks 7th and 5th in those same measures. The Bills’ defense has regressed from last year. They rank 27th and 25th in those same metrics. Neither team stops the run either, as the Chiefs rank 28th while the Bills rank 27th. This game screams points, but teasing it offers a more favorable number.
Moneyline Parlay
This week, while navigating how to bet week 6 in the NFL, I came up with 2 moneyline parlay options for you, because if some is good, more is better. Not to mention my moneyline parlays also have a 76.25% return on investment for the year, better than Dunkin Donuts stock for my fellow finance nerds.
Option 1: -108 Odds
This first moneyline parlay is my favorite of the week for one main reason: we’re keeping it simple. This ticket combines some of the most lopsided games we will see in week 6.
- Ravens
- Colts
- Patriots
Option 2: +265 Odds
Parlays are used to get big returns, and this next option is one to offset that downside in my previous parlay pick. If you like a little more risk, but still want a ticket with realistic chances to cash, you’ve found it.
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
- Rams
- Ravens
Now that you know how to bet week 6 in the NFL, head to the sportsbooks and starting cashing tickets. Check out The Football Discussion for a more comprehensive breakdown of every matchup, as well as weekly game recaps. Check out more sports betting content a CrowWorthy.com
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