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Gambling Cheat Sheet: NFL Win Totals

With the NFL season fast approaching it’s probably time I start turning the gambling content up a notch. For full disclosure I should mention, as I have a million times, I’m not a giant win total or future bet guy. I find my niche is single game betting, and future bets never really tickled my fancy.

With all of that being said I found myself feeling like I needed to jump in in the win total projections. As much as I respect Jeremy, and all the other gambling bloggers who are great, there are multiple totals that I strongly disagree with. One of the greatest things about gambling is the disagreements. I honestly probably would not have ever got into gambling if it weren’t from disagreements on games. Stemming back to grade school I remember betting my friends dollars and shit on a game. In complete transparency, back then neither myself or my friends knew anything about sports or matchups, but it was fun.

I don’t want to shoot my load quickly and give my projections on every team right out of the gate, because I’d have nothing else to talk about for awhile. Rather I’ll be writing multiple win total blogs (every 3-5 days) where I list 3-4 teams and give my opinion of their total. So what do you saw we get to the picks? Okay sweet.

Cowboys O/U 9.5

This is probably the biggest disagreement between Jeremy and I. He is firmly in the camp of the Cowboys hitting the over here. I’m not so sure. Is the offense sexy? Yes. Did they spend a first rounder on a great defensive player? Yes. But I’m still not sold. I don’t think this defense is going to magically get fixed by a few lackluster moves, and a draft pick. I fully understand that in this generation of football, offense can win games, but you need at least some symbolism of defense.

Listen, getting Dak back is a gigantic thing, but the quarterback probably wasn’t the worst issue they had last year. There were 2-3 issues that were even worse than having Andy Dalton behind center. Asking Dak to cover up those issues instead of fixing them properly is a rough decision, and it’s risky for any bettor to expect it also. I think it would take a perfect season and no impactful injuries for the cowboys to hit 11-6 this year. So obviously you project one extra lose due to injury or some unforeseen issue, now we are at 10-7. If I, or any of you think 10-7 is close to the ceiling for them why would you bet over 9.5? Your margin for error is so low. Unless I see more improvement to this team I’ll love the under 9.5.

Patriots O/U 9 (-125/+105)

First and foremost, Bill is the best coach arguably in NFL history. I truly believe you always give him the benefit of the doubt, because he’s earned that….or cheated enough that you never count him out….either or. But over 9? Idk about that. The roster is very appealing. They made great moves this off-season. The offensive line is going to be good. The defense should be good. They have 2 very capable tight ends……but there is one giant issue….the quarterback. When the most important player on the field is arguably the worst player on the field simultaneously, that’s a recipe for disaster.

Cam Newton is going to be the downfall for this team. Did anyone watch him last year? He can’t throw with accuracy further than 20 yards. What world am I living in where Cam Newton wins 10 games in 2020-2021. I love the Mac Jones pick but I doubt he’ll be ready to make an impact this year, which means this is Cams team baring injury. Cam has been a MVP level player in his career (obviously), but this isn’t the same Cam. How many times have we seen a amazing defense get drug down by a bad QB? CC: Bears, & Jags come to mind quickly in terms of the recent past.

I’ll give Bill, and the organization the benefit of the doubt in almost any scenario, but not in this one. If your QB sucks, I can’t expect double digit wins. Plain and simple. Out of respect for how crafty the Patriots are at cheating, I won’t take the under either, but I won’t even consider the over at this point.

Chargers O/U 9

Hammer the over. Am I crazy for thinking 8-9 is the floor for this team? I mean they have improved offensively, and have a high powered offense around a great young QB, and also have a extremely good defense full of playmakers.

The addition of some key defensive players that were gone last year, and the fact that Justin Herbert is only going to get better is a scary thought for opponents. I legitimately think the ceiling for this team if they stay healthy is 13ish wins. The floor is probably 8-9. I’ll happily hammer the over here. Big year coming from the Bolts.

And there is volume 1 of the end all be all NFL win total blogs. Look out for my next blog coming this Saturday, and follow me on Twitter @TCollins1012