It’s Super Bowl Sunday! Tom Brady will be looking to capture a 7th Super Bowl win today, more than any singular franchise. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to capture a 2nd Super Bowl within his first three years as a starting quarterback. CBS will have 120 cameras on board to cover the game, including a new “Trolly Cam” that will be flying endzone to endzone at up to 65mph to capture angles never seen before. At the end of the night, the streets of Tampa will be scenes of euphoria or scenes of disappointment. At the same time, sports-books across America will be celebrating another annual tradition of taking money from the American people. However, here are four prop bets that I think will net a positive for you, the bettor, for Super Bowl LV.
Shortest Touchdown UNDER 1.5 yards (-170)
Last year, we saw multiple touchdowns from a yard out in the Super Bowl. All it takes is a pass interference call in the endzone or an offsides from the two-yard line or a ball-carrier getting pushed out inches before the pylon to set up a short touchdown. The game should be high-scoring, which will give this prop lots of chances to cash in, and a Brady QB sneak or a Chiefs gadget play at the goalline is always in play.
Ronald Jones OVER 35.5 rush yards (-110)
Jones hasn’t appeared to be totally healthy with the quad injury yet this postseason, but the two weeks off should help that heal. Despite the quad, he still managed to rush for 62 yards in the divisional round against the Saints and saw 10 carries in the Conference Championship against the Packers. Although he didn’t reach 36 rushing yards in that game, he has rushed for at least 36 yards in 9 of the other 11 games this season when he gets 10+ carries, and I expect him to get 10-12 carries today. The Bucs will want to control the ground game with him and Fournette and utilize their physicality to set the tone.
Fumble lost in 2nd half, YES (+125)
I feel almost suspiciously good about this one. On one side, we have the hard-hitting defense of the Bucs known as the “grave-diggers,” and on the other side, we have some opportunistic defenders with the Chiefs. In each the divisional round game against the Saints, Winfield forced a huge fumble on Jared Cook, and you better believe that he’ll be ready to go for this game after missing the Conference Championship round due to injury. And although it was at the end of the first half, Kansas City’s Daniel Sorensen forced that Rashard Higgins fumble-out-the-endzone.
With other guys like Tyrann Mathieu and Devin White roaming the field, this prop will be in play at all times in the second half. Plus, I have a weird feeling that there will be a critical fumble in the 4th quarter that gives the Bucs a momentum boost and energizes the Super Bowl LV home crowd.
Mahomes to be sacked first (-120)
I like this one for three reasons. One, we all know about the makeshift offensive line that the Chiefs will have due to their injuries. Two, the combination of Todd Bowles, the hard-hitting mentality of the Bucs defense, and the energy of the stadium. And three, I think that Brady will be dialed in from the start and will do a nice job evading pressure in the pocket. I can easily see a Jason Pierre-Paul or a Shaq Barrett getting to Mahomes in the first couple of Kansas City drives.
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