Colby Cummings recaps his Week 7 performance and gives you his picks to make sure you will be cashing your NFL week 8 bets.
Week 7 Performance
We have another strong week in the books after week 7. Our picks went 7-1 (88%), and that brings us to 63.11-40-1 (61.2%) on the year. 2020 has been brutal overall, but we’ve been just as brutal to the sportsbooks.
The ideal teaser is when you take the original line that would have lost and bring it to a line that wins, as opposed to paying more for a better line that you didn’t actually end up needing. That’s exactly what we did. The Saints were -7 vs the Panthers, but only won by 3. The 6-point teaser got us into the pocket at -1. Flawless research by your author, and excellent execution by the readers. *Fist bump*
I went on record saying “be a real gambler and let that shit ride” when talking about the Rams moneyline to finish a 3-team parlay paying at +142. After a great week I didn’t want to put too much of a stain on the week, so I hedged. It cost me about 0.76 units in potential profit. I went against my own advice, but hopefully you held strong and got every dollar out of this parlay.
Advice for the Week: Steam Chasing
Right after a team has a big win or loss, don’t just ride momentum. There’s more value in fading these trends when the time is right. Especially if the public betting is heavy on one side. I like to use The Action Network to track this public betting. Make sure you don’t buy into the hype too much when a team is hot. Every team goes on both good and bad runs. It’s when you’re on the right side of a bet when they transition from one to the other. When a team is hot and due to go cold, or vice versa, that’s where you find value. Bet like a sharp; project and predict, instead of following whatever is hot. Now let’s get started on cashing NFL week 8 bets.
The Browns have been a punchline for a long time, but that’s behind them this year. They only have 2 losses this year, @ Pittsburgh and @ Baltimore, and there’s no shame in that. Cleveland will control the trenches while on offense. They rank 3rd in pass blocking and 5th in run blocking vs a Raiders team ranked 30th and 23rd in defending those attacks. The Raiders’ offense has been productive, but the underlying issue is they rank 21st in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Even Vegas is favoring their own team’s opponent, and you should too. One of the safest NFL Week 8 bets.
Titans @ Bengals under 55
Tennessee loves to let teams hang around, and the Bengals love to hang around, so expect this one to be somewhat close. But I won’t lay 6 on the road with the Titans. I’d rather take the under. Coming off a loss, this looks and smells like a gut-it-out type of win for Tennessee. They’re 4-1-1 hitting overs this year, and I think Vegas has finally caught up with them. Also, the Titans have a clear advantage on the ground, ranking 13th in run blocking vs a Bengals’ defense ranked 27th vs the run. Cincinnati’s offense can’t protect Burrow as they’re 25th in pass blocking. One last note, road favorites over 3 points hit overs only about 47% of the time over the last 5 seasons. No need to light it up for Tennessee. Chew the clock, gut out a win on the road, and lets cash this ticket.
This line has come down from 2.5. The public likes Atlanta, which I’m fine with. If the public was going to move this north of 3, I would have stayed away. Ultimately, the Panthers edge the Falcons consistently. Offensively the Panthers are 10th in DVOA and 15th in EPA/play compared to the Falcons’ offense ranking 23rd and 18th, respectively. Additionally, the Panthers’ defense is 23rd and 16th whereas the Falcons’ defense is 27th and 26th in these same metrics. Carolina is more battled tested with a strength of schedule by DVOA ranked 8th hardest compared to Atlanta’s 16th. The Falcons love losing close games, and were going to make money off their pain and suffering this week.
6-Point Teaser Options
TB -2.5, GB -1 for 2 units -110 odds
The Buccaneers opened at -8.5 so I was able to tease it below the key number of 3. Even at the current -10.5 teased to -4.5 I still like it. The Giants’ offense is 30th in DVOA and 30th in EPA/play vs a Buccaneers defense ranked 1st in both measures. On top of that, the Buccaneers offense is heating up as the season grows older. That’s largely due to the 9th ranked pass blocking line keeping Tom Brady clean, and don’t expect the Giant’s 31st ranked pass rush to change that.
Green Bay’s offense has a major mismatch vs this Minnesota defense. The Packers are 4th in DVOA and 2nd in EPA/play, and the Vikings merely rank 15th and 24th respectively. Green Bay has been dominant, going 5-1 against the spread this year as well. They’re at home, aren’t overlooking a divisional rival, and will handle the consistently below average graded Vikings.
BAL +2, LAR/MIA under 51, NE/BUF under 49 +150 odds
Baltimore is coming off a bye, and the Steelers are coming of a big win, and overdue for a let down. The Steelers’ regression is coming. The Ravens will be out to prove they are not fraudulent like so many have echoed. Simply put, its a great spot for the Ravens and a bad one for the Steelers. Baltimore ranks 11th in pass rush and Pittsburgh ranks 28th in pass blocking. I’ve been calling for Big Ben to get exposed, and this is the week.
The Rams defense will dominate in the trenches. They rank 6th in pass rush and 12th in stopping the run vs the Dolphins who rank 30th and 29th in the offensive side of those metrics. But don’t overlook the Dolphins defense, they rank 14th in DVOA and 12th in EPA/play. A new rookie QB in Tua Tagovailoa vs a sophisticated Rams defense? And these two teams are a combined 4-9 hitting the over? Sign me up for a teased under.
The Patriots’ defense ranks 9th in stopping the run vs a Bills’ offensive line that ranks 31st in run blocking. So they’ll want to go to the air, right? Be warned, this Patriots secondary is still solid, and the defense is 15th in EPA/ play. The Bills offense has seen a few hiccups the past few weeks vs similar or worse graded defenses compared to the Patriots, averaging 17ppg over the last 3 weeks. As far as the Patriots’ offense, well, Cam Newton is struggling BADLY. This is somehow a must win game for both teams, and add in that it’s a divisional game, expect a sloppy gut-it-out type of game where we don’t see too many points.
Favorite: -143 Odds
Keep it simple. Lets pick 2 winners; Buccaneers and Packers. Now lets pick a loser; Jets. This one wont buy you an Aston Martin, but my goal is to serve winners, not fools gold.
Secondary: +215 Odds
This one we get a little more fancy. The Titans are well rounded vs a rebuilding Bengals team. The Saints are also well rounded vs a one dimensional Bears team. And the Rams have shown us how deadly they can be, whether it be the offense we saw vs Buffalo, or the defense we saw vs the Cowboys.
I wish you best of luck with your gambling and cashing NFL week 8 bets. Be sure to check out The Football Discussion presented by Crow Worthy hosted by yours truly.
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